When the starter is unknown: a gap in our method
Our Colorado v Kansas State card was priced before anyone knew who would play quarterback. What that means for the number, and what we do about it.
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Our Colorado v Kansas State card was priced before anyone knew who would start at quarterback for Kansas State, and it has not been re-priced since. That is a real gap in how we work: the chance on a card is fixed when it is published, so news that lands later is in the market's price but not in ours. The card still says 57.3% Kansas State. Read it knowing that.
When the Colorado v Kansas State card was priced
The Desk published the card at 18:45 UTC on 27 October. At that point Kansas State coach Klein had said he did not know who would take the first snap, per Colorado Buffaloes Wire. By Friday, Sports Illustrated reported Avery Johnson ruled out and Jacob Knuth doubtful. So the research knew the position was a problem, but not how the week would end.
| Kansas State | Desk card | Price moved to |
|---|---|---|
| Card published | 18:45 UTC, 27 Oct | |
| Our chance | 57.3% | unchanged |
| Best price | 2.37, Pinnacle, 04:48 UTC 31 Oct | |
| Edge shown | +15.1 pts |
The full reasoning is in Kansas State's quarterback crisis and the price.
Why our chance stays put
We do not move a published chance when news arrives, for the reason set out in why our chance stays put when the price moves: a record is only worth something if every call is judged on the number we gave before the game. Re-pricing after the news would let us quietly keep our good guesses and fix our bad ones.
The cost is that a big edge late in the week can be partly a stale number. When the market moves a lot on team news after our card, the edge shown is the gap between an old chance and a new price, as we explain in how to read a BAI8 price that is days old.
What we do about it
We tell you, on the card's own page, when the news came after the price, as the Kansas State preview does. Where a starter is unknown, the honest reading of a large edge is a smaller one.
What this does not tell you
It does not say the card is wrong. The research leaned on Kansas State's running game, which a new quarterback changes less. It only says the number is older than the news, and the result will settle it.
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Common questions
What happens to a BAI8 call when a key player's status changes?
The chance on the card stays where the research put it. The price moves on, and the edge shown is the gap between our fixed chance and today's best price.
Why not re-price the card when the news lands?
Because the record would stop being honest. A call is judged on the chance we published before kick-off; changing it after the news would let us keep only our good guesses.
When was the Colorado v Kansas State card priced?
The Desk card was published at 18:45 UTC on 27 October, before Kansas State had named a starting quarterback.