Seahawks v 49ers prediction: our chances
Seahawks v 49ers on Sunday: we make San Francisco 52.2% and the best price we saw was 2.56, a 13.2 point edge. Our numbers, the injuries and the risks.
On this page
We make the 49ers slight favourites in Seattle: San Francisco 52.2%, the Seahawks 47.8%. The reason this is the top card on our Desk is the price. The best price we saw on a 49ers win was 2.56 at Betfair, against our fair price of 1.91. That is a 13.2 point gap, the widest on the Desk today. It is an estimate of a chance, not a promise of a result.
Kick-off is Sunday 11 October at 20:25 UTC, at Lumen Field.
Our numbers
| Outcome | Our chance | Fair price | Best price seen | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Seahawks | 47.8% | 2.09 | ||
| San Francisco 49ers | 52.2% | 1.91 | 2.56, Betfair | +13.2 pts |
The 2.56 was quoted at 00:07 UTC on 9 October. At 2.56 the market implies a 39.1% chance for San Francisco. We have 52.2%. The difference is the edge, and what a positive edge actually means explains why that gap matters more than who we think wins.
A gap this wide is unusual. When the market and our number disagree by 13 points, one of us is missing something. That is worth saying plainly before anyone reads it as a strong opinion.
What the public evidence says
- The 49ers are short on defence. Nick Bosa did not practise on Wednesday or Thursday with knee and calf injuries, per the Seahawks' official injury report. NBC Sports Bay Area says he is not expected to play. Safety Marques Sigle and defensive tackle James Thompson are also out, per 49ers Webzone.
- Some help is coming back. Kyle Shanahan said Mykel Williams should be good to go for Sunday after his ACL recovery.
- Seattle have their own doubts. Leonard Williams did not practise on Thursday with an ankle injury, and linebacker Chazz Surratt sat out with a calf problem.
We go deeper on the Bosa absence in what missing Nick Bosa does to a 49ers price.
What could make us wrong
The market is pricing Seattle as clear favourites at home. If the 49ers' thin defensive line is worse than we assumed, our number is too high. Friday's final injury designations and Sunday's inactives can move this more than anything else.
What this does not tell you
It does not say the 49ers will win. On our numbers they lose almost half the time. It does not say 2.56 is still available. And it does not show the research passes behind the card, only their result.
18+. Bet only what you can afford to lose.
Common questions
Who do BAI8 make favourites for Seahawks v 49ers?
San Francisco, narrowly. We give the 49ers a 52.2% chance and the Seahawks 47.8%. That is close to a coin toss, with a small lean to the away side.
What is the best price BAI8 saw on the 49ers?
2.56 at Betfair, quoted at 00:07 UTC on 9 October. Our fair price is 1.91, so the quote sat 13.2 points above our number.
Is Nick Bosa playing for the 49ers against Seattle?
Public reports say he is not expected to. He did not practise on Wednesday or Thursday with knee and calf injuries, per the Seahawks' injury report and NBC Sports Bay Area.