Sweden vs Bosnia and Herzegovina prediction and news

How it settled

Sweden 3–2 Bosnia & Herzegovina, full time on Saturday 14 November. Sweden won as our 50.6% call said, but a five-goal game settled by one goal backs the pass: Coral's 1.55 asked for more certainty than the match showed.

Our call before the match

Written on 11 Nov 2026, before the match. The prices, team news and any "tonight" or "next week" below are as they stood then.

BAI8 backs Sweden to beat Bosnia and Herzegovina on Saturday, at a 50.6% chance, but not at the price on offer: Coral's 1.55 asks for 64.5%, and our verdict is "Likely outcome, unattractive price". Sweden are the likeliest result. They are not a good bet at that number.

BAI8 has researched this match in depth: open the Sweden vs Bosnia and Herzegovina page to see the call. The Free plan covers 5 assessments a month, no card needed. The rest of this piece gives the table, the numbers and the team news behind it.

The match and what is at stake

Kick-off is 20:45 local time (19:45 UTC) on Saturday 14 November 2026 at Strawberry Arena in Solna, Stockholm. UEFA lists it as matchday 5 of League B Group 4. Sweden then travel to Poland on 17 November, the same night Bosnia and Herzegovina host Romania in Zenica.

UEFA's standings after four games:

Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
Sweden	4	3	1	0	7	3	10
Bosnia and Herzegovina	4	2	2	0	6	3	8
Poland	4	1	1	2	7	4	4
Romania	4	0	0	4	3	13	0

The group winner goes up to League A and the bottom side drops to League C. The second and third placed teams play promotion and relegation matches in March 2027, according to the Swedish FA. So Sweden can open a five-point gap on the side chasing them, and Bosnia and Herzegovina can move a point clear of Sweden with a win. Neither side is playing for pride. For more on how a table like this moves a price, see what a Nations League table does to the price.

Our prediction

Outcome	BAI8 chance	BAI8 fair price	Best price we found
Sweden	50.6%	1.98	1.55 at Coral (9 Nov, 04:02 UTC)
Draw	26.1%	3.83	4.55 at 1xBet (9 Nov, 04:01 UTC)
Bosnia and Herzegovina	23.3%	4.29	6.50 at Bovada (9 Nov, 03:58 UTC)

The call was made on 9 November 2026 by our v4 ensemble, with moderate confidence. Two books we could read put the market at 63.6% Sweden, 21.1% draw and 15.3% Bosnia and Herzegovina. We are lower on Sweden by about 13 points and higher on both other outcomes.

Here is what that means for someone weighing a bet. A price of 1.55 only pays off over time if Sweden win at least 64.5% of the time. We say 50.6%, an edge of minus 13.9 points. Our range for Sweden is wide, 18.9% to 84.7%, so the conservative end crosses break-even and any apparent edge is not robust. The verdict is plain: Sweden are the likeliest winner, but the price leaves no room for the other 49.4%.

The longer prices on the draw and Bosnia and Herzegovina sit above our fair prices. That is arithmetic, not a recommendation: the ranges there are wide too (draw 11% to 35.2%, Bosnia and Herzegovina 4.8% to 54%), and our verdict applies to Sweden at 1.55. To see how to read a number like this, our guide to betting on football with an assessment walks through fair price, break-even and edge.

Why we back Sweden

Sweden are unbeaten in the group, with three wins and a draw: 2–1 against Romania and 3–1 against Poland in September, then 1–0 in Romania on 5 October, where Viktor Gyökeres scored, according to SVT. They also play at home.

The market and our assessment agree on the direction. They differ on size. A 63.6% market chance for a team that has scored seven in four and conceded three looks generous to us, because Bosnia and Herzegovina have conceded the same three and have not lost.

The Zenica game on 2 October is the best evidence. It finished 1–1. Gyökeres scored on 61 minutes after Alexander Bernhardsson won the ball high, and Kerim Alajbegović equalised on 80. The Swedish FA reports that Sweden had an earlier Gyökeres goal ruled out by VAR, and that Bosnia and Herzegovina's Edin Džeko had a goal disallowed late in the first half. Džeko played his last international that night.

Sweden's team news, from the Swedish FA and SVT:

• Dejan Kulusevski is in the squad after a long injury absence, more than 17 months.
• Gyökeres is in. Anthony Elanga and goalkeeper Jacob Widell Zetterström return.
• Alieu Njie of Fiorentina and Genesis Antwi, on loan at Strasbourg from Chelsea, are in as debutants.
• Emil Holm is injured, which brought Felix Beijmo into the squad. Besfort Zeneli is listed as withdrawn on 9 November.

A squad list is not a starting eleven. Selection does not mean fit or starting.

Bosnia and Herzegovina coach Sergej Barbarez named 26 players, including Sead Kolašinac, Ermedin Demirović, Alajbegović, Esmir Bajraktarević, Tarik Muharemović and Haris Tabaković. In goal he picked Martin Zlomislić, Salko Hamzić and Mladen Jurkas. Their recent results: 0–0 at Poland, 4–2 at Romania, 1–1 with Sweden and 1–0 at home to Poland. That is a side that does not lose, which is why we do not trust a price as short as 1.55.

Likeliest scores and goals

Score	BAI8 chance
1–1	12.4%
1–0	11.1%
2–1	9.5%
2–0	9.4%
0–0	7.8%

No single score is above one in eight, which is normal. Goals are balanced: over 1.5 goals is 74.3%, over 2.5 is 48.7% and over 3.5 is 26.9%. That is a coin flip on 2.5, and it is why a draw does not look as unlikely to us as the market says.

What could make this wrong

Three things. First, our own range: Sweden between 18.9% and 84.7% is not a precise statement, and it can be moved by a single team sheet. Second, the squads are not line-ups. Kulusevski has only recently returned to action and we cannot know his minutes. Two debutants and a late change from injury could shift the balance. Third, the other side of the table matters: a Bosnia and Herzegovina win would put them a point clear of Sweden with two games left, so they have every reason to attack.

Open the Sweden vs Bosnia and Herzegovina match page to see the full research and each assessment. The Free plan gives you 5 assessments a month, no card needed.

18+. Bet only what you can afford to lose.

What this does not tell you

It does not give a line-up: both squads are lists, and the team sheets are not out yet. The prices were quoted on 9 November and will have moved, so check the number you can actually get. Only two bookmakers fed our market consensus. BAI8 does not place bets and holds no bookmaker account; this is research, not a tip, and no probability of 50.6% means Sweden will win.