Turkey vs Belgium prediction and team news

How it settled

Turkey 1–2 Belgium, full time on Thursday 12 November. The call published before kick-off was Belgium (match result) at 1.96 with Betfair, and it won. It stays on BAI8's public record with every other settled call, wins and losses alike.

Belgium won as our 52.3% pick, but the edge was a thin 1.3 points inside a wide range, so a single 2–1 win says more about the result than about whether the number was right.

Our call before the match

Written on 11 Nov 2026, before the match. The prices, team news and any "tonight" or "next week" below are as they stood then.

BAI8 backs Belgium to win in İzmir on Thursday: we give them a 52.3% chance, against 25.1% for the draw and 22.6% for Turkey, which makes Belgium a fair price of 1.91. The best price we found was 1.96, so the edge is thin, and we call it a watch, not a strong pick.

BAI8 has researched this match: open the Turkey vs Belgium page to see the full call. The Free plan covers 5 assessments a month, no card needed.

Kick-off is 17:00 UTC on Thursday 12 November (20:00 in Turkey) at Gürsel Aksel Stadium in İzmir, matchday 5 of League A Group 1, per UEFA's match data. The Turkish federation lists the same time and venue.

Our prediction

Outcome	BAI8 chance	BAI8 fair price	Best price found	Where and when quoted
Turkey	22.6%	4.43	3.79	1xBet, 6 November 21:45 UTC
Draw	25.1%	3.98	4.10	Betfair, 6 November 21:46 UTC
Belgium	52.3%	1.91	1.96	Betfair, 6 November 21:46 UTC

Prices are from the 6 November assessment and will have moved since. The bookmaker prices, once the margin is taken out, imply 27.2% Turkey, 23.5% draw and 49.3% Belgium, averaged over three books. We are higher on Belgium and lower on Turkey than the market.

The verdict is "Watch: likely and positive value, but uncertainty remains". Belgium clear the 50% line, and 52.3% is above the 51% break-even chance that a 1.96 price needs. That is an edge of 1.3 points. But our own conservative range for Belgium runs from 24.4% to 84.6%, and it crosses break-even, so the edge is not robust. Confidence is moderate (0.604), with 0.819 agreement between sources.

For someone thinking of betting: Belgium is the likelier result by a distance, but a price of 1.96 pays you for being right about half the time, and our number is only just above that. If the price drifts below about 1.91, it is gone. The draw at 4.10 is also above our fair 3.98, by a similar sliver, and not something we would build on.

Why we back Belgium

The table. After four games Italy have 7 points, Belgium 6 and Turkey none, with France leading on 10, per UEFA. Turkey have scored 2 and conceded 11.

	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
France	4	3	1	0	7	2	10
Italy	4	2	1	1	8	5	7
Belgium	4	2	0	2	6	5	6
Turkey	4	0	0	4	2	11	0

The form. Turkey lost 0–1 to France, 1–4 and 1–3 to Italy, and 0–3 to Belgium in the first meeting on 2 October, which had two goals from Kevin De Bruyne and one from Romelu Lukaku. Belgium lost to France twice, 0–1 and 1–4, and beat Italy and Turkey. A fair caution: all four of Turkey's games were against the three best sides in the group, so the scoring totals are harsh partly because of the schedule.

The stakes. Our research reads it this way: Turkey cannot finish second, because even six more points would leave them behind Italy's seven. But the match is not meaningless. Fourth place across the leagues matters for relegation, and Turkey have a new coach. Belgium are in the race for a top-two place and play Italy in Brussels three days later. Our note on that kind of pressure is in what a Nations League table does to the price.

Team news (Turkey). Sergen Yalçın named a 26-player squad on 6 November on the federation's live broadcast, then removed Aral Şimşir. Kenan is injured, though called up. Altay, İrfan Can, Kerem and Mert Müldür were left out. The squad was due in camp on 9 November and in İzmir on 11 November, per the Turkish federation, with a flight to Bordeaux on 13 November for France. That second game, three days later, may shape who plays.

Team news (Belgium). Mark van Bommel's squad brings back Jérémy Doku after injury and adds Josué Kongolo, who replaced Koni De Winter after De Winter declined the call, and Hugo Cuypers as an extra forward. Lukaku is one card away from a suspension, which is why Van Bommel wanted another striker. De Bruyne and Youri Tielemans are in. Thibaut Courtois, Zeno Debast and Loïs Openda are not. Lineups are not confirmed on either side.

Where we sit against the market. Belgium are the better side by every measure we have, and the bookmakers agree: they make them favourites. We are about three points more confident than the market's 49.3%. That gap is the whole edge, and it is small.

Likeliest scores and goals

Score	Chance
1–1	12.0%
0–1	10.3%
1–2	9.7%
0–2	9.3%
0–0	7.0%

Three of the five likeliest scores are Belgium wins by one or two goals, and the other two are 1–1 and 0–0. On totals, our chance of over 1.5 goals is 76.6%, over 2.5 is 51.9% and over 3.5 is 29.7%. Over 2.5 is a coin flip, so we have no view there. Note that the likeliest single score is a draw, even though the draw is only the second most likely result: a single scoreline always looks small next to a three-way outcome.

What could make this wrong

• Wide uncertainty. Our range for Belgium is 24.4% to 84.6%. That is a reflection of how little data a four-game sample holds, and it is why the verdict stops at "watch".
• Stale prices. The prices were quoted on 6 November, before the squads were fully settled. If Belgium shorten, the edge is gone.
• A new Turkey. Yalçın was appointed in October and talks about a four-year project. A home crowd in İzmir and a coach's first home game can lift a side that the form table writes off.
• Rotation. Both teams play again on 15 November. Van Bommel has Lukaku one card from a ban, and Turkey face France. A rested star on either side changes the number.
• Weather and venue. The venue is confirmed, but we found no usable forecast for kick-off, so we assign no weather effect.

For the method behind a call like this one, see how to bet on football with a model, and for the other end of the group, how BAI8 priced Italy vs France.

You can see the full research behind this call on the Turkey vs Belgium page. The Free plan covers 5 assessments a month, no card needed.

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What this does not tell you

It is built on research and prices from 6 November, five days before kick-off. It does not know the confirmed line-ups, late withdrawals, the weather in İzmir or the price at any bookmaker today. BAI8 does not place bets and holds no bookmaker account; a 52.3% chance is a chance, not a promise, and Turkey win more than one match in five. The edge we found is 1.3 points, inside the noise of a four-game group sample.