What Cucho Hernández's calf does to the Betis price
Cucho Hernández missed Betis training on Monday with a calf problem before Feyenoord. Our number predates the news. What it changes and what it does not.
Cucho Hernández is out of Real Betis v Feyenoord on Wednesday, UEFA.com says, with a calf problem. Mundo Deportivo reports he missed Monday's training after playing the first hour against Barcelona on Saturday, and that Troy Parrott is expected to start up front instead. Our Desk number for the game was set on 17 October, before any of that, and it has not changed. If the news moves anything, it makes Betis a little weaker, which pushes the same way as our call on Feyenoord.
Our number, and when it was set
| Outcome | Our chance | Fair price | Best price this morning | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord | 37.8% | 2.65 | 5.60, Unibet (NL) | +19.9 pts |
| Draw | 24.6% | 4.07 | ||
| Real Betis | 37.6% | 2.66 |
The card was published at 05:43 UTC on 17 October. The price on Feyenoord was 6.25 when we wrote our Real Betis v Feyenoord preview and was 5.60 at 04:56 UTC this morning. We cannot tell you the price moved because of Cucho: other things happened in the same days, and one bookmaker's quote is a thin thing to read.
What the injury changes
- Betis lose their first-choice striker for one game. Mundo Deportivo says he started against Barcelona, so he was in the side before this. Both sources name Parrott as the replacement up front.
- Betis's list is getting longer. UEFA.com also has Junior Firpo out (adductor) and Aitor Ruibal doubtful (knee), although Mundo Deportivo says Ruibal is back in training after months out.
- Feyenoord's list is still the longer one. UEFA.com has seven Feyenoord players out, among them Jordan Bos, Jakub Moder, Bart Nieuwkoop, Gijs Smal and Reiss Nelson.
One forward usually moves a football match price by a few points at most, because the other ten players and the opponent matter more. Our number already treats this as close to a coin toss with a draw in it, so even a fair adjustment for Cucho would leave the call where it is.
What this does not tell you
It does not tell you Feyenoord will win; on our own numbers they fail to win more than six times in ten. It does not include anything after Monday's training, and Betis may still surprise with a fitness test. Team sheets arrive about an hour before the 19:00 UTC kick-off. How we treat team news in general is in why we run research before the model.
18+. Bet only what you can afford to lose.
Common questions
Is Cucho Hernández injured?
UEFA.com lists Cucho Hernández out of Real Betis v Feyenoord with a calf problem, and Mundo Deportivo reports he missed Monday's training on 19 October after playing the first hour against Barcelona.
Who replaces Cucho Hernández for Betis?
Both UEFA.com and Mundo Deportivo expect Troy Parrott to lead the line against Feyenoord.
Does Cucho's injury change BAI8's Betis v Feyenoord call?
Our chance was set on 17 October, before the injury news, and has not been updated. If anything the news makes Betis a little weaker, which would push in the same direction as our Feyenoord call, not against it.
What is BAI8's Real Betis v Feyenoord prediction?
Feyenoord 37.8%, Real Betis 37.6%, draw 24.6%. The best price on Feyenoord this morning was 5.60 at Unibet (NL), a 19.9 point edge. It is an estimate, not a promise.