Porto's centre-back gap and the Betis price
Bednarek is banned and Smalling is not registered, so Porto arrive in Seville short at the back. What that does to the Real Betis price, and what it does not.
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Porto go to Seville tonight short of centre-backs: Jan Bednarek is suspended, and Chris Smalling and Dominik Prpić are not registered for the Champions League. That is a real weakness, but it does not make Real Betis a good price. The best quote we saw on Betis, 2.27, already implies 44.1%, and we give them 36.8%. The market has more than priced the gap in.
What the news is
BTCLod reports Francesco Farioli travelled with 24 players. Bednarek is serving the second game of a ban carried over from last season's Europa League. Smalling, Prpić and Gabriel Mec are not in the Champions League squad. Nehuén Pérez and Zaidu Sanusi are back in training after knocks, and winger William Gomes is out for weeks with an ankle sprain. Sports Mole says Pablo Rosario, usually a midfielder, could fill in at centre-back if Pérez is not ready.
Why a gap like this moves a price less than it feels
Three questions decide it:
| Question | Tonight |
|---|---|
| Was it known? | Bednarek's ban and the squad registration were known well before matchday. |
| Who replaces them? | Kiwior, Rosario or a just-returned Pérez: a reshuffle rather than a like-for-like swap. |
| Does the opponent exploit it? | Betis are missing width themselves, with Junior Firpo and Aitor Ruibal out (Sports Mole). |
Known news is old news to a market. The price on Betis was 2.27 on 3 October and it was already short then. The same pattern, an injury list already in the price, played out last night in what United's injury list does to Atlético's price.
Where our card sits
| Outcome | Our chance | Fair price | Best price seen | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Betis | 36.8% | 2.72 | 2.27, 1xBet | −7.2 pts |
| Draw | 29.0% | 3.45 | ||
| Porto | 34.2% | 2.93 |
The full preview is in Real Betis v Porto prediction and odds.
What this does not tell you
It does not tell you Porto will concede. A makeshift back line can hold for ninety minutes. It also does not say Porto are value: we have only compared the Betis price, and our card was set on 10 October, before some of this news.
18+. Bet only what you can afford to lose.
Common questions
Who is missing in Porto's defence against Real Betis?
Jan Bednarek is suspended, and Chris Smalling and Dominik Prpić are not registered for the Champions League. Nehuén Pérez and Zaidu Sanusi have only just returned to training.
Does Porto's defensive gap make Real Betis good value?
Not on our numbers. We make Betis 36.8% and the best price we saw, 2.27, implies 44.1%. The market already rates Betis far higher than we do.
Who could play centre-back for Porto against Betis?
Sports Mole says Pablo Rosario could fill in if Pérez is not fit, and BTCLod names Jakub Kiwior among the options.