What is a win to nil bet? Meaning and examples
A win to nil bet needs your team to win and concede nothing. How it settles, how to work out a fair price, and real examples from Monday's games.
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A win to nil bet is a football bet that your team wins and the other team does not score. A 1–0, 2–0 or 5–0 win pays. A draw loses, a 0–0 loses, and a win where your team concedes, such as 2–1, also loses. It is a stricter version of a straight win bet, so it pays more. Its fair price is one divided by your chance of a win and a clean sheet together.
How a win to nil bet settles
| Score (your team first) | Straight win | Clean sheet | Win to nil |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1–0 | Wins | Wins | Wins |
| 3–0 | Wins | Wins | Wins |
| 2–1 | Wins | Loses | Loses |
| 0–0 | Loses | Wins | Loses |
| 1–1 | Loses | Loses | Loses |
| 0–1 | Loses | Loses | Loses |
Most bookmakers settle win to nil on 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shootouts do not count unless the market says so, per the rules of bookmakers such as Dafabet and Winnita. In a cup tie that goes to extra time, a 0–0 after 90 minutes is a losing bet even if your team wins later. Own goals count as goals for the team credited, so an own goal by your defender breaks the nil.
Real examples from Monday 2 November
Here is how four results from the Monday BAI8 slate would have settled a win to nil bet on the winning side:
- Benfica 1–0 Alverca. Benfica won and kept a clean sheet, per DN. Win to nil on Benfica wins.
- Lorient 0–2 Brest. Away win, no Lorient goal. Win to nil on Brest wins, which shows the market works for away sides too.
- Deportivo 2–1 Osasuna. Deportivo won, but Osasuna scored first, per AP. Win to nil on Deportivo loses, even though a straight win bet paid.
- Gil Vicente 0–0 Vitória SC. A clean sheet for both, but no winner. Win to nil on either side loses.
That third case is the one to remember. Win to nil turns a winning result into a losing bet whenever the other side scores once.
How to work out a fair win to nil price
Win to nil is two things at once: a win, and a clean sheet in that win. So its chance is the win chance multiplied by the share of those wins that come with a clean sheet.
Take Benfica's card for Monday. The BAI8 Desk gave Benfica 72.4% to beat Alverca. Our card did not price clean sheets, so the next step is an illustration, not our number. Suppose you think Benfica keep a clean sheet in 60% of the games they win against a side like this.
| Step | Sum | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Win chance | from the BAI8 card | 72.4% |
| Clean sheet share of wins | your assumption | 60% |
| Win to nil chance | 0.724 × 0.60 | 43.4% |
| Fair price | 1 / 0.434 | 2.30 |
If a bookmaker offers 2.50, that price implies 40.0%, so on your numbers the edge is 43.4% minus 40.0%, 3.4 points. At 2.10 it implies 47.6%, and the bet has no edge on those numbers.
The second input matters as much as the first. Drop the clean sheet share from 60% to 45% and the win to nil chance falls to 32.6%, a fair price of 3.07. Most of the error in a win to nil price lives in that second number, so be honest about how often a team really keeps the other side out when it wins.
A quick check that works both ways: the win to nil chance is always lower than the straight win chance and always lower than the clean sheet chance. If your sums give a number above either, something is wrong.
When win to nil makes sense, and when it does not
It fits a strong side against a weak attack. Big home favourites often win without conceding, and the win to nil price is much longer than the straight win price. It fits less well when the favourite's defence is patchy, or when the underdog has one dangerous player on set pieces, because a single goal ruins the bet.
It also adds a second margin. The bookmaker builds its margin into the win price and again into the win to nil price, and the second one can be larger, because fewer people bet it and it is harder to check. Compare it with the straight win and with double chance betting before choosing.
If you want to price the clean sheet half properly, expected goals is the place to start: read expected goals (xG) explained for bettors. And for the related market where a single goal on the wrong side decides the bet, see the correct score explainer.
What this does not tell you
It does not give a BAI8 win to nil number for any match: the Desk prices match results, not clean sheets, and the 60% share above is an assumption for the example. Settlement rules vary by bookmaker, especially for extra time and abandoned games, so read the rules for the market you are using. A fair price tells you whether a bet is good value, not whether it will win.
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Common questions
What does win to nil mean in betting?
Your team must win and the other team must not score. 1–0, 2–0 or 5–0 win the bet. Any draw, including 0–0, loses, and so does a win in which your team concedes.
Does win to nil include extra time?
Usually not. Most bookmakers settle it on 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties, unless the market says otherwise. Check the rules of the market you bet.
How do you work out a fair win to nil price?
Multiply your chance of the team winning by your chance they keep a clean sheet when they win, then divide one by the result. A 60% win chance with clean sheets in half of those wins is 30%, a fair price of about 3.33.
Is win to nil the same as clean sheet?
No. A clean sheet bet also wins on 0–0. Win to nil does not, so its chance is always lower than both the win chance and the clean sheet chance.