Bet types
Understand how betting markets work, from match results to totals and handicaps, and what moves the odds before a fixture starts.
American football2 min readMoneyline edge when the favourite is shortA short moneyline favourite can still be a bad price. How to turn odds like 1.21 into a chance, compare it with your own, and see the edge go negative.What the draw is worth in football oddsThe draw is the result most people ignore and the one that quietly decides most football bets. How to read its price, with real numbers from this weekend. · 2 min readHandball scores heavily and models differentlyThe 2023 men's world championship averaged 58.52 goals per match. That volume supports count and Gaussian models, with important limits. · 2 min readVolleyball set betting and the serveRally scoring makes every point count, while serve, reception and rotation change rally probabilities. Those inputs can model exact set scores. · 1 min readNBA totals and the pace trapA points total is two numbers wearing one coat: how efficiently teams score, and how often they get the chance. Confusing them is the usual mistake. · 1 min readHow to read a football match odds marketA 1X2 market is three prices with an overround. Here is how to infer probabilities without mistaking the quoted margin for certainty. · 2 min readWhy esports map handicaps can move quicklyRoster changes and software patches can make older results less comparable with the team and game that will exist at the next fixture. · 1 min readSnooker frame handicaps in a long formatA best of nineteen is a different probability problem from a best of nine, and a frame handicap has to reflect that change in format length. · 1 min readBaseball run lines and the starting pitcherStarting pitchers affect baseball estimates and some wager settlements, but listed-pitcher rules vary by sportsbook and market. · 1 min readRugby handicaps and the bonus pointBonus-point rules can change late-match incentives, so a rugby margin model needs the competition rules as well as team strength. · 1 min readCricket markets change with the formatTest and T20 cricket use different innings and time limits, so a probability model must change its structure with the format. · 1 min readWhat a puck line actually pricesHockey's common 1.5-goal puck line changes the question from who wins to whether the final margin reaches two goals. · 1 min readWhy a both teams to score price movesBTTS can be derived from two scoring rates. That is why it can move sharply while the match-result probabilities barely change. · 1 min readAsian handicaps without the jargonA quarter-ball handicap is two bets at half stakes. Once you see that, the whole notation stops being cryptic and starts being useful. · 2 min readReading a tennis match marketPoint-based tennis models turn serve estimates and the scoring rules into match probabilities, with assumptions that need testing. · 1 min read