What Milenkovic's absence does to Forest
Nikola Milenkovic and Igor Jesus miss Forest's trip to Palace. What losing a first-choice centre-back does to a price, and where our 34.1% for Forest sits.
On this page
Losing Nikola Milenkovic makes Forest a little weaker at the back, and losing Igor Jesus takes away a forward option. Neither is large enough on its own to swing a three-way price by much; together, with Neco Williams ill, they push Forest below where a full-strength side would sit. Our card has Forest at 34.1% at Selhurst Park today, behind Palace at 36.9%.
What happened
Oliver Glasner said on Friday that Milenkovic, back from a hamstring injury, played in a behind-closed-doors friendly, then bruised a bone in his knee in a duel and "can't train". Igor Jesus has a calf injury and will be out "for a few weeks". Williams trained on Thursday, then had a fever and missed Friday (Metro, 9 October). Football365 adds that Nicolo Savona is still out after knee surgery.
How an injury moves a price
A single outfield player rarely moves a match price much. Goalkeepers and the main striker move it most. A centre-back matters more when the replacement is a big step down, or when the defence has to change shape. Forest are expected to play Aina, Diomande and Murillo across the back, per the Racing Post predicted line-up.
What moves the price most is usually the timing. News that lands on Friday afternoon, like Milenkovic's, reaches bookmakers before most money does; news that lands an hour before kick-off can catch prices out.
Where our number sits
| Outcome | Our chance | Fair price |
|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace | 36.9% | 2.71 |
| Draw | 29.0% | 3.44 |
| Nottingham Forest | 34.1% | 2.93 |
The card was published on 8 October, before Glasner's news conference. We cannot tell you how much of the Forest number already reflected these absences. The full preview is Crystal Palace v Nottingham Forest prediction.
What this does not tell you
It does not put a number on what Milenkovic alone is worth; we do not publish player-level values. It does not tell you whether Williams starts, and Palace have their own long absence list.
18+. Bet only what you can afford to lose.
Common questions
Is Nikola Milenkovic playing against Crystal Palace?
No. Oliver Glasner said he bruised a bone in his knee in a training duel and will miss the game.
How long is Igor Jesus out?
Glasner said a few weeks, with a calf muscle injury picked up at the club during the international break.
What chance do BAI8 give Forest at Palace?
34.1%, with Palace 36.9% and the draw 29.0%. Our call is on Palace, at a best price of 2.90 at Betfair.