Arsenal at Anfield paid: Sunday's 22 settled calls
All 22 BAI8 calls for Sunday 1 November are settled: 15 won, 7 lost, +6.74 units. Arsenal and Athletic paid, Celtic lost at Falkirk. The full tables.
On this page
Sunday 1 November was a good day on the record: 22 BAI8 calls settled, 15 won and 7 lost. At one unit on every call at the best price we saw, that is +6.74 units. Our own chances said about 10.7 wins were expected, so 15 is four more than the model forecast. Most of the profit came from calls where we had no positive edge, which is the part to be careful with, and we say why below.
The day in numbers
| Group | Calls | Won | Lost | Expected wins | Level stakes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All calls | 22 | 15 | 7 | 10.7 | +6.74 units |
| Positive edge | 9 | 4 | 5 | 3.8 | +0.84 units |
| No positive edge | 13 | 11 | 2 | 6.9 | +5.90 units |
Expected wins is the sum of our published chances for the side we called; how we count it is in how we count expected wins on a results day. Level stakes means one unit per call at the price on the card, which is not necessarily a price you could still get.
Edges that paid
| Game | Our call | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Bilbao v Real Sociedad | Athletic Bilbao | 2.26 | +6.0 pts | Won |
| Liverpool v Arsenal | Arsenal | 2.42 | +1.4 pts | Won |
| FC Zwolle v ADO Den Haag | FC Zwolle | 2.32 | +2.3 pts | Won |
| Lecce v Genoa | Genoa | 2.84 | +1.1 pts | Won |
Arsenal won 1–0 at Anfield, their first win there in 14 years, with Kai Havertz scoring in the 16th minute, per Sky Sports.
Edges that did not
| Game | Our call | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frosinone v Torino | Torino | 3.15 | +5.9 pts | Lost |
| Getafe v Sevilla | Sevilla | 2.75 | +5.1 pts | Lost |
| Union Berlin v 1. FC Köln | Union Berlin | 2.70 | +4.8 pts | Lost |
| SC Telstar v FC Utrecht | FC Utrecht | 2.48 | +4.7 pts | Lost |
| Elche v Valencia | Elche | 2.55 | +3.4 pts | Lost |
Favourites that lost
Celtic at 1.40 at Falkirk was the shortest price of the day to lose. Falkirk won 2–0, per the SPFL. Our card rated Celtic at 67.0%, below the 71.4% the price implied, a −4.4 point edge. Groningen at 1.78 against Sparta Rotterdam also lost. Short prices lose more often than they feel like they should; see what a short favourite really risks.
What this does not tell you
The 11 wins from 13 calls without a positive edge are luck in our favour, not skill: we had rated those sides below their prices. Twenty-two calls on one day also share kick-off times and rounds of fixtures, so they are not 22 independent tests. The record now stands at 400 settled calls, 233 won and 167 lost; for how many it takes before a record means anything, read how many bets before a record means anything. Competitions are as the Desk lists them.
18+. Bet only what you can afford to lose.
Get our call on the next match
Thirteen passes of research before the start: who to back, the price worth taking and why. Run it in the app on any match.
Free plan: 5 assessments a month. No card.
Common questions
How did BAI8 do on Sunday 1 November?
22 calls settled, 15 won and 7 lost. At one unit per call at the prices we saw, that is +6.74 units.
Did the positive-edge calls win on Sunday?
Four of nine won, for +0.84 units. Our chances said about 3.8 wins were expected from those nine, so four is roughly on forecast.
What was the biggest loss on Sunday?
Celtic at 1.40 at Falkirk, the shortest price of the day to lose. Falkirk won 2–0, per the SPFL. Torino at 3.15, our widest edge of the day at +5.9 points, also lost at Frosinone.
Did BAI8 call Liverpool v Arsenal right?
Yes. We called Arsenal at 2.42, a +1.4 point edge, and they won 1–0 at Anfield with a Kai Havertz goal, per Sky Sports.