Everton won at Newcastle: Monday's 8 settled calls

Monday 2 November was a losing day on the record. Eight BAI8 calls settled, three won and five lost. At one unit on every call at the best price we saw, that is −1.57 units. Our own chances said about 3.8 wins were expected from the eight, so three is a little under forecast, not a collapse. The headline loss was Newcastle at home to Everton; the headline wins were Brest at Lorient and Deportivo against Osasuna.

All of these calls were published before kick-off. You can see the full pre-match slate in Monday predictions: Newcastle v Everton and more.

Every call, settled

Match	Our call	Price	Our chance	Edge	Score	Result	Units
Gençlerbirliği v Alanyaspor	Alanyaspor	2.80	38.5%	+2.7	5–0	Lost	−1.00
Sassuolo v Fiorentina	Sassuolo	2.60	45.7%	+7.2	2–4	Lost	−1.00
Lorient v Brest	Brest	3.00	37.1%	+3.8	0–2	Won	+2.00
Atalanta v Parma	Atalanta	1.50	56.9%	−9.8	0–3	Lost	−1.00
Newcastle v Everton	Newcastle	2.36	42.9%	+0.5	0–1	Lost	−1.00
Deportivo v Osasuna	Deportivo	2.28	46.4%	+2.5	2–1	Won	+1.28
Benfica v Alverca	Benfica	1.15	72.4%	−14.6	1–0	Won	+0.15
Gil Vicente v Vitória SC	Gil Vicente	2.76	40.9%	+4.7	0–0	Lost	−1.00

Edge is in percentage points: our chance minus the chance the price implies. Units assume one unit per call at the best price on the card. Scores are from the match reports listed under sources.

Newcastle 0–1 Everton

This was our closest call to the market all day. We had Newcastle at 42.9% against a price of 2.36, an edge of half a point, which is close to no edge at all. Everton won 1–0 at St James' Park, their first away league win of the season, per Sky Sports. Thierno Barry scored in the 49th minute after the Newcastle keeper let Tyrique George's shot slip under him, and substitute Jacob Ramsey was sent off late on for two yellow cards in 86 seconds. Newcastle were booed off.

A half-point edge is a call that says "this price is about right". Losing it tells you very little about the model and a lot about why we flag small edges as small.

What paid

• Brest at 3.00 at Lorient. Our 37.1% against an implied 33.3%. Brest won 2–0 with goals from Ludovic Ajorque and, in stoppage time, Noah Edjouma, per Foot01. The day's best result at +2.00 units.
• Deportivo at 2.28 against Osasuna. Our 46.4% against 43.9%. Ante Budimir put Osasuna ahead, Mario Soriano equalised and Bil Nsongo won it in the 87th minute, ending a six-game winless run, per AP.
• Benfica at 1.15 against Alverca. A Vangelis Pavlidis penalty won it 1–0, per DN. A short-priced, negative-edge call that paid +0.15.

What lost

• Atalanta at 1.50 at home to Parma. Parma won 3–0 in Bergamo, per Atalanta's own report. This was a negative-edge call: our 56.9% was well under the 66.7% the price implied.
• Sassuolo at 2.60 against Fiorentina. Our widest edge of the day at +7.2 points. Fiorentina won 4–2. We had argued Fiorentina's defence was the weak point in Fiorentina's defence and the Sassuolo price; two goals for Sassuolo bore that out, four conceded did not.
• Gil Vicente at 2.76 against Vitória SC. A 0–0 in Barcelos, per zerozero. A draw loses a win call, which is the plain cost of picking one side in a three-way market.
• Alanyaspor at 2.80 at Gençlerbirliği. Gençlerbirliği won 5–0, per AA, the heaviest miss of the day.

Positive edge against negative edge

Group	Calls	Won	Expected wins	Units
Positive edge	6	2	2.5	−0.72
Negative edge	2	1	1.3	−0.85
All	8	3	3.8	−1.57

Expected wins are our own chances added up. Two wins from 2.5 expected on the positive-edge calls is within ordinary noise for six bets. For a sense of how many results you need before a record says anything, read how many bets before a record means anything.

What this does not tell you

Eight calls on one day prove nothing either way: a single Monday can swing by several units on luck alone. The units assume the best price on the card, which not every reader would have got. And the table shows what we said before kick-off, not what we would say now. One more call from 2 November, Miami v Florida, was not yet on the record when this was written and will be settled separately.