Werder and Cambuur paid: Saturday's 31 settled calls
All 31 BAI8 calls for Saturday 31 October are settled: 20 won, 11 lost, +7.63 units. Which edges paid, which favourites lost, and why one day proves little.
On this page
Saturday 31 October was a good day on the record: 31 BAI8 calls settled, 20 won and 11 lost. At one unit on every call at the best price we saw, that is +7.63 units. Our own chances said about 16.5 wins were expected, so 20 is three and a half more than the model forecast. One day of football is far too little to mean much, and we say why below.
The day in numbers
| Group | Calls | Won | Lost | Expected wins | Level stakes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All calls | 31 | 20 | 11 | 16.5 | +7.63 units |
| Positive edge | 12 | 8 | 4 | 6.6 | +5.18 units |
| No positive edge | 19 | 12 | 7 | 10.0 | +2.45 units |
Expected wins is the sum of our published chances for the side we called. Level stakes means one unit per call at the price on the card, which is not necessarily a price you could still get.
Edges that paid
| Game | Our call | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Werder Bremen v Hoffenheim | Werder Bremen | 3.20 | +12.8 pts | Won |
| Cambuur v Go Ahead Eagles | Cambuur | 3.35 | +10.2 pts | Won |
| Lincoln v Birmingham | Birmingham | 2.23 | +7.3 pts | Won |
| Schalke v RB Leipzig | RB Leipzig | 1.89 | +4.5 pts | Won |
Edges that did not
| Game | Our call | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troyes v Le Mans | Le Mans | 3.50 | +12.8 pts | Lost |
| Hull v Ipswich | Hull | 2.72 | +7.1 pts | Lost |
| AC Milan v Inter | Inter | 2.36 | +4.8 pts | Lost |
| Leverkusen v Stuttgart | Leverkusen | 1.81 | +3.2 pts | Lost |
Favourites that lost
Feyenoord at 1.18 against Fortuna Sittard was the shortest price of the day to lose; our card already rated them below the price, at a −11.1 point edge. Manchester City at 1.74, West Ham at 1.60, Gladbach at 1.96 and Aston Villa at 2.00 also lost. Short prices lose more often than they feel like they should; what that costs is in what a short favourite really risks.
What this does not tell you
Thirty-one calls on one day are not independent tests of the model: many share a kick-off time, a league and the same round of fixtures. A +7.63 day sits next to a −2.47 week in our week on the record: 104 calls, 52 won. For why neither tells you much alone, read how many bets before a record means anything. Competitions are as the Desk lists them.
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Common questions
How did BAI8 do on Saturday 31 October?
31 calls settled, 20 won and 11 lost. At one unit per call at the prices we saw, that is +7.63 units.
Did the positive-edge calls win on Saturday?
Eight of 12 won, for +5.18 units. Our chances said about 6.6 wins were expected from those 12.
What was the biggest loss on Saturday?
Feyenoord at 1.18 against Fortuna Sittard, the shortest price of the day to lose. Le Mans at 3.5, our joint widest edge at +12.8 points, also lost.