Carabao Cup fourth round: our two calls
Our two Carabao Cup fourth-round calls for 28 October: Liverpool at home to Chelsea and Sunderland at home to Brentford. Chances, fair prices and edges.
We have two calls in the Carabao Cup fourth round, both on Wednesday 28 October, and we lean the home side in both. Liverpool at home to Chelsea is the stronger lean, at 50.3%. Sunderland at home to Brentford is close to even on our numbers, at 37.1% against 36.2%. In both, the price we saw was longer than our fair price.
The calls
| Tie | Kick-off (UTC) | Our side | Our chance | Fair price | Best price | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland v Brentford | Wed 28 Oct, 19:45 | Sunderland | 37.1% | 2.70 | 3.9, Betfair | +11.4 pts |
| Liverpool v Chelsea | Wed 28 Oct, 20:00 | Liverpool | 50.3% | 1.99 | 2.65, PointsBet (AU) | +12.5 pts |
Both quotes were taken at about 03:47 UTC on 25 October. Edge is our chance minus the chance the price implies.
The full chances
| Tie | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland v Brentford | 37.1% | 26.7% | 36.2% |
| Liverpool v Chelsea | 50.3% | 25.6% | 24.1% |
The full working is in Liverpool v Chelsea: Carabao Cup prediction and Sunderland v Brentford: Carabao Cup prediction. What Chelsea's absences mean for the Anfield tie is in what Chelsea's injury list does to the Liverpool price.
Two things to know about cup cards
First, these are 90-minute numbers. A draw goes to penalties, and the bet on who goes through is a different market, explained in to qualify betting explained. Second, both cards were fixed before any line-up was known, and managers rotate in early cup rounds. That limit is in cup rotation: what our research can miss.
What this does not tell you
It does not rank the other fourth-round ties; we have no finished card on them. It does not say either home side will win; on our numbers Sunderland fail to win in 90 minutes about 63 times in 100 and Liverpool about half the time. Two calls on one night say nothing about how good our numbers are, as how many bets before a record means anything explains.
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Common questions
Which Carabao Cup fourth-round ties does BAI8 have a call on?
Two, both on Wednesday 28 October: Sunderland v Brentford at 19:45 UTC and Liverpool v Chelsea at 20:00 UTC. We lean the home side in both.
Do BAI8's cup numbers include penalties?
No. Both cards price the match result after 90 minutes. A level tie goes to penalties in this round, and that is a separate to qualify market.
Why only two ties?
We publish a card only when the research is finished and a price has been compared. A tie missing from this page means no finished assessment, not a view either way.