Serie A matchday 9: our ten calls, six won
BAI8 called all ten Serie A matchday 9 games. Six won, four lost, +1.05 units at the quoted prices. Two of three positive-edge calls landed. Every call listed.
BAI8 made a call on all ten Serie A matchday 9 games, played from Tuesday 27 to Thursday 29 October. Six won and four lost. At the quoted prices, one unit on each came to +1.05 units. Two of our three positive-edge calls landed. Our own chances added up to about 5.2 expected wins, so six is a little better than our numbers said, and well within normal luck.
Every call
| Match | Score | Our pick | Our chance | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sassuolo v Lazio | 2–6 | Lazio | 47.4% | 2.53, 1xBet | +7.9 pts | Won, +1.53 |
| Roma v Cagliari | 4–2 | Roma | 67.6% | 1.40, 1xBet | -3.8 pts | Won, +0.40 |
| Torino v Como | 1–3 | Como | 48.9% | 1.83, 1xBet | -5.8 pts | Won, +0.83 |
| Milan v Bologna | 2–4 | Milan | 55.7% | 1.66, Bovada | -4.6 pts | Lost, -1 |
| Parma v Udinese | 0–0 | Udinese | 38.3% | 2.50, Betfred (UK) | -1.7 pts | Lost, -1 |
| Venezia v Inter | 0–2 | Inter | 74.0% | 1.36, Bovada | +0.5 pts | Won, +0.36 |
| Genoa v Juventus | 2–0 | Juventus | 51.4% | 1.70, 1xBet | -7.4 pts | Lost, -1 |
| Monza v Napoli | 1–4 | Napoli | 49.9% | 1.96, 1xBet | -1.2 pts | Won, +0.96 |
| Frosinone v Lecce | 5–1 | Frosinone | 46.1% | 1.97, 1xBet | -4.7 pts | Won, +0.97 |
| Fiorentina v Atalanta | 2–2 | Atalanta | 40.6% | 3.10, Betfair | +8.4 pts | Lost, -1 |
Chances, prices and outcomes are from the Desk record; scores are from TuttoMercatoWeb. The edge is our chance minus the chance the price implies. Units assume one unit on each call at the price shown.
What went right
- Lazio, our best result. Our second-widest edge of the round, at 2.53, and Lazio scored six at Sassuolo.
- The away favourites mostly came through. Como, Inter and Napoli all won away, Napoli by three goals.
What went wrong
- Milan and Juventus. Milan at home to Bologna and Juventus at Genoa both lost, Milan 2–4. Both were negative-edge calls, which is the point: we thought they were likelier to win than lose, but the prices said the market agreed even more.
- Atalanta drew. Our widest edge of the round, 8.4 points at 3.10, ended 2–2 in Florence. A draw beats a three-way pick as surely as a loss.
What it means
Very little on its own. Ten games is one round, and a round of 6 from 10 moves the long-run record by a fraction. It took the public record to 341 settled calls, 195 won and 146 lost, +11.87 units. How many calls it takes before any of this means something is in how many bets before a record means anything. Why we publish calls we do not think are value is in why BAI8 publishes negative-edge calls.
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Common questions
How did BAI8 do on Serie A matchday 9?
Ten calls, one per game, from 27 to 29 October. Six won and four lost. At the quoted prices, one unit on each came to +1.05 units.
Did BAI8's positive-edge Serie A calls win?
Two of three. Lazio at 2.53 and Inter at 1.36 won; Atalanta at 3.10 lost after a 2–2 draw in Florence.
Why did BAI8 publish negative-edge calls?
Seven of the ten calls had a negative edge: we picked the side we thought likelier to win, but the price was shorter than our fair price. We publish those so the record shows every call, not only the ones we liked.
What is the BAI8 record now?
341 settled calls, 195 won and 146 lost, +11.87 units on the public record as of 30 October.