Colorado v Kansas State prediction and odds

How it settled

Colorado Buffaloes 27–24 Kansas State Wildcats, full time on Saturday 31 October.

Our call before the match

Written on 31 Oct 2026, before the match. The prices, team news and any "tonight" or "next week" below are as they stood then.

We lean Kansas State at Colorado. We give the Wildcats 57.3% to win, and the best price we saw was 2.37 at Pinnacle, against our fair price of 1.75. That is a 15.1 point positive edge. The market has Colorado as the home favourite; we have the visitors ahead. The number is an estimate, not a promise, and this one comes with a big question mark at quarterback.

Kick-off is noon Mountain time (18:00 UTC) on Saturday 31 October at Folsom Field in Boulder.

Our numbers

Team	Our chance	Fair price	Best price seen	Edge
Kansas State Wildcats	57.3%	1.75	2.37, Pinnacle	+15.1 pts
Colorado Buffaloes	42.7%	2.34

The card was published on 27 October and the 2.37 was quoted at 04:48 UTC on 31 October. Fair price is 1 divided by our chance: 1 / 0.573 is about 1.75. Edge is our chance minus the chance the price implies, 57.3% minus 42.2%. This is the moneyline, a bet on who wins, not the point spread.

What the research weighs

• The form gap. Kansas State are 4-3 and 1-3 in the Big 12. Colorado are 2-5 and 0-4, and were beaten 57–24 at Oklahoma State last week after leading 24–23 in the first half, per Sports Illustrated.
• Kansas State run the ball. They have averaged more than 200 rushing yards a game, per Sports Illustrated, which matters more than usual when the passer is new.
• The head-to-head. Kansas State have won the last two meetings, including 24–14 last season, per Sports Illustrated.

Injuries

Player	Team	Status	Source
Avery Johnson, QB	Kansas State	Out	Sports Illustrated
Jacob Knuth, QB	Kansas State	Doubtful, ankle	Kickoff Status
Julian Lewis, QB (third string)	Colorado	Out	Kickoff Status
Danny Scudero, WR; Quentin Gibson, WR	Colorado	Out	Kickoff Status
Micah Welch, RB	Colorado	Out	Kickoff Status
Braylon Edwards, DB; Sam Gadie, DE	Colorado	Out	Kickoff Status
Vili Taufatofua, DL	Colorado	Doubtful	Kickoff Status
Kam Perry, WR	Colorado	Available	Kickoff Status

Who starts at quarterback for Kansas State

It was not settled by Friday. Avery Johnson is out and Jacob Knuth was listed doubtful after tweaking his ankle twice at Arizona State, which could leave Blake Barnett or Dillon Duff in line to start, per Sports Illustrated and Colorado Buffaloes Wire. Coach Collin Klein said on Monday he did not know who would take the first snap. We go into what that does to the number in Kansas State's quarterback crisis and the price.

What could make us wrong

The card was priced on 27 October, when Kansas State's quarterback room was already hurt but before Knuth was listed doubtful. A first-time starter on the road is the kind of change a price reacts to quickly and research can underweight. Colorado's Isaac Wilson has thrown for 979 yards and six touchdowns, and receiver Joseph Williams is coming off 135 yards, per Sports Illustrated, so the Buffaloes can score.

What this does not tell you

It covers the outright winner only, not the spread or the total. A 15 point gap is large, and large gaps are where our own errors hide; see why a very wide edge makes us look twice. Saturday's other college cards are in college football Halloween: our three calls.

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