Kansas State's quarterback crisis and the price
Kansas State go to Colorado with a first-time starter at quarterback. What that news does to the moneyline, and why our 57.3% still backs them.
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Kansas State's quarterback news is the reason Colorado are the market's favourite on Saturday. Avery Johnson is out, Jacob Knuth is doubtful, and the starter could be Blake Barnett or Dillon Duff, both of whom have been hurt this season. We still give Kansas State 57.3% to win, at a best price of 2.37. That gap is the question this piece is about.
Why Kansas State's quarterback situation is a problem
Johnson missed last week's 28–17 loss at Arizona State, and Klein has not said what the injury is. His backup Knuth made his first college start in that game, completed 26 of 41 passes for 194 yards and a touchdown, and tweaked his ankle twice, per Colorado Buffaloes Wire. On Monday Klein said: "I don't know exactly who is going to take the first snap on Saturday." By Friday, Sports Illustrated reported Johnson ruled out and Knuth doubtful.
The next two are not clean options either. Duff missed the nonconference schedule with a lower-body injury and Barnett was hurt in the season opener, though he dressed at Arizona State. A Kansas State reporter said on Monday that all four quarterbacks were banged up, per Buffaloes Wire.
What it does to the price
| Our chance | Fair price | Best price seen | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas State Wildcats | 57.3% | 1.75 | 2.37, Pinnacle | +15.1 pts |
| Colorado Buffaloes | 42.7% | 2.34 |
Figures from the BAI8 Desk, quoted at 04:48 UTC on 31 October. A price of 2.37 implies about 42.2% for Kansas State, so the market has Colorado as the more likely winner. That is what a missing quarterback looks like in a moneyline: the bookmakers have moved a 4-3 team behind a 2-5 one.
Do we still favour Kansas State?
Yes, on the card as it stands. The research leaned on things a new quarterback does not change much: Kansas State run for more than 200 yards a game, Colorado have lost four Big 12 games and gave up 57 points last week, and Kansas State won this fixture the last two seasons, per Sports Illustrated. A run-first team can lose less than most when the passer changes.
But be honest about timing. The card was published on 27 October. Knuth's doubtful tag came later in the week. Our chance stays put when the price moves, as we explain in why our chance stays put when the price moves, and that means a price that has drifted on real news can make an edge look bigger than it is. The full card is in Colorado v Kansas State prediction and odds.
What this does not tell you
We do not know who starts, and nor did Klein on Monday. If it is a quarterback playing hurt, the 57.3% may be a number for a different team. It is an estimate, not a promise.
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Common questions
Why is Kansas State's quarterback situation a problem?
Avery Johnson is out, Jacob Knuth was doubtful with an ankle injury, and the remaining options, Blake Barnett and Dillon Duff, have both been injured this season.
Do BAI8 still favour Kansas State at Colorado?
Yes. The Desk card gives Kansas State 57.3% at a best price of 2.37, a 15.1 point edge. The card was priced on 27 October, before every detail of the quarterback news was known.