College football Halloween: our three calls
Our three college football calls for Saturday 31 October, all on the side the market makes less likely: Northwestern, Arizona and South Alabama, with prices.
On this page
We have three college football calls for Saturday 31 October, and all three back the side the market makes less likely to win: Northwestern at Oregon, Arizona at Texas Tech, and South Alabama at home to Louisiana Tech. Each is a moneyline call, a bet on who wins.
The three calls
| Game (UTC kick-off) | Our call | Our chance | Fair price | Best price seen | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Tech v Arizona (16:00) | Arizona | 53.5% | 1.87 | 2.51, Pinnacle | +13.7 pts |
| South Alabama v Louisiana Tech (19:00) | South Alabama | 52.2% | 1.92 | 2.89, Pinnacle | +17.6 pts |
| Oregon v Northwestern (19:30) | Northwestern | 55.6% | 1.80 | 2.4, Bovada | +13.9 pts |
All prices were quoted between 04:28 and 04:30 UTC on 29 October. Fair price is 1 divided by our chance, and edge is our chance minus the chance the price implies.
Arizona at Texas Tech
No. 22 Arizona are 6-1 and have won five straight; No. 13 Texas Tech are 6-1 after losing at Cincinnati. Arizona are missing cornerback Jay'Vion Cole and are 1-13 all-time in Lubbock. Full preview: Texas Tech v Arizona prediction.
Louisiana Tech at South Alabama
This one has no preview of its own, so here is the research. Louisiana Tech are 5-2 and 3-0 in the Sun Belt and have shut out their last two opponents, per AP. South Alabama are 4-3 and have scored 50 or more in two straight games, per South Alabama Athletics, with Jared Hollins at quarterback. Kick-off is 3 p.m. Eastern in Mobile, and Louisiana Tech are favoured by about five points, per AP.
That is the widest gap of the three, 17.6 points, between our 52.2% and the roughly 35% the 2.89 implies. Two shutouts are a strong signal, and if our number underweights them, this is where it shows.
Northwestern at Oregon
Oregon are 4-3 and without quarterback Dante Moore for the season; No. 20 Northwestern are 6-1. Full preview: Oregon v Northwestern prediction, and the injury angle in Dante Moore is out.
What this does not tell you
Three underdog calls on one day can all lose; on our own numbers each is close to a coin flip. Edges this wide, 13.7 to 17.6 points, are rare and are where our errors would hide; see why a very wide edge makes us look twice. An earlier Saturday's college calls are in college football Saturday: our two calls.
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Common questions
What are BAI8's college football picks for 31 October?
Northwestern at Oregon, Arizona at Texas Tech and South Alabama at home to Louisiana Tech, all on the moneyline.
Which call has the biggest edge?
South Alabama. We give them 52.2% against Louisiana Tech, and the best price we saw was 2.89 at Pinnacle, a 17.6 point edge.
Why does South Alabama have such a big edge?
The market makes Louisiana Tech favourites by about five points after two straight shutouts. We make South Alabama slightly more likely to win. A gap that wide is a reason to check our work, not a reason for confidence.