Czech Republic vs Spain prediction and team news

How it settled

Czech Republic 0–2 Spain, full time on Thursday 12 November. The call published before kick-off was Spain (match result) at 1.18 with Unibet (SE), and it won. It stays on BAI8's public record with every other settled call, wins and losses alike.

Spain won as our 61.5% favourite and 0–2 was the likeliest score in our table, but the price was still shorter than our number said it should be, and one win does not change that.

Our call before the match

Written on 11 Nov 2026, before the match. The prices, team news and any "tonight" or "next week" below are as they stood then.

BAI8 backs Spain to win in Prague on Thursday: we give them a 61.5% chance, against 22.3% for the draw and 16.2% for a Czech Republic win. The catch is the price. The best Spain price we found was 1.18, which needs 84.7% to break even, and our verdict is "Likely outcome, unattractive price".

BAI8 has researched this match: open the Czech Republic vs Spain page to see the call. The Free plan gives you 5 assessments a month, no card needed.

Kick-off is 20:45 in Prague (19:45 UTC) on Thursday 12 November at the epet ARENA, matchday 5 of League A Group 3, per UEFA's match data. More Nations League predictions.

Our prediction

Outcome	BAI8 chance	BAI8 fair price	Best price found
Czech Republic	16.2%	6.18	20 at Betfair
Draw	22.3%	4.48	9.2 at Betfair
Spain	61.5%	1.63	1.18 at Unibet (SE)

Prices were quoted at 22:02 UTC on 8 November 2026 and will have moved since. The fair price is 100 divided by our chance. Across three bookmakers the market agrees on the direction and is firmer than we are: it puts Spain at 84.3%, the draw at 10.7% and Czech Republic at 4.9%.

Verdict: likely outcome, unattractive price. Spain clear the 50% line we use for a "likely" call. But the 1.18 price implies 84.7%, and we give 61.5%. That is a gap of 23.3 points against the price. Our range for Spain is wide, 26.9% to 89.4%, and it crosses the break-even point, so the apparent edge is not robust. Confidence is moderate (0.605), with 0.91 agreement between sources.

What that means in practice: Spain are the likeliest result, but a 1.18 ticket pays 1.80 profit on 10 euros, while a bet at our fair price of 1.63 would make 6.30 profit. If you are thinking of backing Spain, you are being paid less than we think the risk is worth. This is the point of pricing against a model: the likeliest team and the right bet are two different questions.

Why we back Spain

The table. Spain have won all four group games: 3–2 at England, 4–1 against Croatia, 3–1 against Czech Republic in Oviedo and 2–1 in Split, for 12 points and a goal difference of +7 (UEFA). The RFEF confirms they are already in the quarter-finals. Czech Republic have lost all four, scoring 2 and conceding 10.

	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
Spain	4	4	0	0	12	5	12
England	4	3	0	1	14	3	9
Croatia	4	1	0	3	4	14	3
Czech Republic	4	0	0	4	2	10	0

Table per UEFA, before matchday 5. The top two reach the quarter-finals.

The earlier meeting. Spain won 3–1 in Oviedo on 3 October. Czech Republic scored through Sláma in the 69th minute, and Krejčí was sent off late for a second yellow card. Our research also records that Czech Republic played with ten men against England on 29 September and lost all four group games under coach Denia.

Underlying play. UEFA's four-match tables show Spain with 61.75% possession against 37.25% for Czech Republic, 91% passing accuracy against 83%, and 20 corners taken against 4. Czech Republic posed little first-half threat against Croatia, and their counter-pressing was often unsuccessful at Wembley. That is the profile of a side that struggles to hold the ball and to win it back.

Team news. ČTK reports that Lamine Yamal (knee) and Mikel Oyarzabal (illness) miss the Prague game, and that Ander Barrenetxea is out of the squad after an injury. Jorge de Frutos and Víctor Muñoz were called up in their place. Pedri, Pau Cubarsí, Fermín López and Joan Garcia were all called up. For Czech Republic, 18-year-old Teplice player Idris Hopi has his first senior call-up, and David Kozel is also in the squad. Squads can change before kick-off, and no line-up is confirmed.

Why Spain are only 61.5% for us. Spain host England in Madrid on Sunday 15 November, so rotation is a live possibility for a side already through. The Czech Republic game also comes at home, with a new coach, and with nothing left to lose. We could not establish venue or weather effects, so the model does not lean on them.

Likeliest scores and goals

Score	Chance
0–2	11%
0–1	10.7%
1–1	10.6%
1–2	9.9%
0–3	7.2%

Scores are listed home first, so 0–2 is a Spain win by two. No single score is above 11%. That is normal: even the likeliest result is a long way from certain. On goals we give 78.4% for over 1.5, 54.4% for over 2.5 and 32.1% for over 3.5. The low Czech attacking output keeps the centre modest, and a broad tail reflects the uncertainty about how open the game becomes.

What could make this wrong

A draw is a real outcome here: we give it 22.3%. Our range for a Czech Republic win runs from 2.9% to 45%, which is wide because the sample is thin: four games, one of them a ten-man game. Spain's Yamal and Oyarzabal absences could matter more than a 61.5% figure suggests, or less. And if Spain rotate for the England game, the Spain price would drift out. The table also changes what each side plays for: see what a Nations League table does to the price. The same group-stage logic applies to a different game in Italy vs France.

For the price you can actually get on this match, open the Czech Republic vs Spain page. The Free plan covers 5 assessments a month, no card needed.

18+. Bet only what you can afford to lose.

What this does not tell you

This is a pre-match view built on prices from 8 November and news from before the squads gather. Line-ups, fitness and prices move. UEFA and the RFEF differ on a couple of Croatia group figures in our research notes, and we have used UEFA's. BAI8 does not place bets or hold a bookmaker account, and none of this is a promise of a result.