Dante Moore is out: what it does to Oregon's price
Oregon have lost Dante Moore for the season. We make them 44.4% at home to Northwestern, an underdog at Autzen. What the quarterback news does to a price.
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Dante Moore will not play again this season, on Dan Lanning's own words, and that is the biggest single reason we make Oregon an underdog at home to Northwestern on Saturday. Our Desk card gives Oregon 44.4% and Northwestern 55.6%. The market still has Oregon as favourites.
What happened
Moore was concussed at USC. Lanning told reporters "I'm not anticipating him being back this season", per The Register-Guard. Saturday's game will be Oregon's fourth without him. In the most recent, a 21–10 defeat at Illinois, Oregon were shut out after half-time. They are 4-3 and unranked.
Why a quarterback moves a price more than most players
In American football the quarterback touches the ball on almost every offensive snap. A football club losing one midfielder spreads the cost across ten other players; a college team losing its starting passer often changes what the whole offence can attempt. That is why a quarterback injury is the news that moves a line most.
What our card says
| Team | Our chance | Fair price | Best price seen | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northwestern Wildcats | 55.6% | 1.80 | 2.4, Bovada | +13.9 pts |
| Oregon Ducks | 44.4% | 2.25 |
The card was published on 27 October, after Moore's injury was known, and the price was quoted at 04:28 UTC on 29 October. The full preview, with both injury lists, is our Oregon v Northwestern prediction.
What could make us wrong
Our gap with the market is wide, 13.9 points. Either the market is still pricing Oregon's name and Autzen's record, 52-11 under Lanning, or we are overreacting to three games. Both are possible, and a wide gap is a reason to check our own work; see why a very wide edge makes us look twice.
What this does not tell you
We do not publish an "Oregon with Moore" number, so we cannot say how many points of chance his absence is worth on its own. This is a reading of one card, not a rating of Oregon's backup.
18+. Bet only what you can afford to lose.
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Common questions
Is Dante Moore out for the season?
Dan Lanning said "I'm not anticipating him being back this season" after Moore's concussion at USC, per The Register-Guard.
How has Oregon done without Dante Moore?
Saturday will be the fourth game without him. The most recent was a 21–10 loss at Illinois in which Oregon did not score after half-time.
What chance do BAI8 give Oregon against Northwestern?
44.4%, against 55.6% for Northwestern. The best Northwestern price we saw was 2.4 at Bovada, a 13.9 point edge on our numbers.