South Carolina's bye week and the Tennessee price
South Carolina get four players back after a bye; Tennessee play an eighth week in a row. What that does to our 58.0% on the Vols, and to the 2.16 price.
South Carolina's bye week gives them most of a missing line-up back, and that is the best case against our Tennessee call. Shane Beamer said on Tuesday that every player who missed the win at Florida is expected to face Tennessee. Tennessee, meanwhile, play for the eighth week in a row. We still make Tennessee 58.0% to win, because that number was set after Beamer spoke and does not move. The price has moved instead.
Who comes back
Per On3, Beamer named four players expected back on 20 October:
- Gabriel Brownlow-Dindy, defensive tackle, missed the Florida game.
- Julian Walker, edge rusher, missed the Florida game.
- Carter Miller, starting centre, missed the Florida game. He was still questionable on Thursday's SEC report, per 247Sports.
- Judge Collier, cornerback, left the Florida game early.
The one doubt is nickel back Quay'Sheed Scott, listed as doubtful. South Carolina had played seven straight games before the bye, On3 notes, which is why the injuries had piled up.
What Tennessee bring
Tennessee's Thursday report lists six players out, all with season-ending injuries suffered weeks ago, including lineman Wendell Moe Jr., per 247Sports. There were no changes from Wednesday. Eight games in eight weeks is a long run, but the report shows no new damage from it, and Tennessee beat Alabama last Saturday.
What it does to the price
| Tennessee | South Carolina | |
|---|---|---|
| Our chance (fixed 21 October) | 58.0% | 42.0% |
| Our fair price | 1.72 | 2.38 |
| Best price on Tennessee, 23 Oct | 2.16, Courtside | |
| Chance implied by 2.16 | 46.3% | |
| Edge | +11.7 pts |
The State reports the spread opened with Tennessee favoured by 2.5 and had flipped to South Carolina by 2.5 at DraftKings and FanDuel by Wednesday. A five-point swing is the market pricing in the returns and home field. Our model already had Beamer's update when the card went up, so the gap between our 58.0% and the market's 46.3% is a real disagreement, not news we missed. How to read a gap like that is in what a positive edge actually means, and the full preview is South Carolina v Tennessee prediction and odds.
What this does not tell you
It does not tell you how much a returning centre or defensive tackle is worth in points; nobody publishes that reliably, and we do not invent it. A player listed as expected back may still be limited. And Tennessee have not named a starting quarterback, which matters more than any of this. It also does not say Tennessee will win: on our numbers they lose about four times in ten.
18+. Bet only what you can afford to lose.
Common questions
Who is back for South Carolina against Tennessee?
Shane Beamer said on 20 October that everyone who missed the Florida game is expected back: defensive tackle Gabriel Brownlow-Dindy, edge Julian Walker and centre Carter Miller, plus cornerback Judge Collier, who left that game early. Quay'Sheed Scott is the one doubt.
Is Tennessee tired after eight straight games?
Tennessee have played every week since the season began, but their Thursday availability report listed only six players, all with season-ending injuries from weeks ago. There is no new injury to point to.
Does the bye week change BAI8's Tennessee pick?
No. Our 58.0% was published on 21 October, after Beamer's Tuesday update, and it stays fixed. The market has since moved five points towards South Carolina, which shrinks the price but does not change our chance.