Colin Simmons is out: what it does to Texas
Texas ruled out Colin Simmons, the country's sack leader, for Ole Miss. What it does to the game, and why our 54.5% on Ole Miss does not include it.
On this page
Colin Simmons will not play for Texas against Ole Miss on Saturday, and neither will the player behind him. Texas listed both on Thursday night's SEC availability report, per 247Sports. That takes the country's leading pass rusher out of a game against one of the hardest quarterbacks in the sport to bring down. It points towards Ole Miss, whom we already make 54.5% favourites, but our number was published before the news and does not include it.
What Texas lose
Per 247Sports, Simmons leads the country in sacks (10.5) and tackles for loss (16). He sprained an ankle in the fourth quarter of last Saturday's 27–24 loss to Florida, was listed doubtful on Wednesday, and out on Thursday. Freshman Richard Wesley, the next man at the same edge spot, hurt an ankle in practice this week and is also out. That leaves Texas without their top two players at the position. Lance Jackson, who plays the other edge, told 247Sports he has to "step up".
On offence, starting running back Hollywood Smothers is doubtful with a shoulder injury. He leads Texas with 289 yards on 65 carries.
Why it matters against this opponent
Ole Miss were already hard to sack. The Texas game notes have them allowing 0.83 sacks a game. Trinidad Chambliss has thrown a touchdown in 19 straight games, per Yahoo Sports, and runs as well. A pass rush that loses its best player against a line that rarely gives up sacks gives a mobile quarterback more time.
What it does to our call
| Ole Miss | Texas | |
|---|---|---|
| Our chance (published 21 Oct, 22:08 UTC) | 54.5% | 45.5% |
| Our fair price | 1.83 | 2.20 |
| Best price on Ole Miss, 23 Oct 04:51 UTC | 2.46, Betfair | |
| Edge | +13.9 pts |
Simmons was first listed as doubtful on Wednesday evening, after our card went up. Our chance stays at 54.5%: we publish a number once and grade it as published, for the reasons in why our chance stays put when the price moves. If anything, the news makes 54.5% look cautious. It also means the price you find on Saturday may already have moved towards Ole Miss, and an edge measured against an older quote is not one you can still get. The full preview is Texas v Ole Miss prediction and odds.
What this does not tell you
Nobody can say how many points one edge rusher is worth, and we will not guess. Texas may scheme around the loss, and a home crowd at night counts for something. It does not say Ole Miss will win; even on our pre-news numbers they lose about 45 times in 100. The SEC posts one more report on Friday evening and a final one 90 minutes before kick-off.
18+. Bet only what you can afford to lose.
Common questions
Is Colin Simmons playing against Ole Miss?
No. Texas listed him as out on Thursday's SEC availability report, after a high ankle sprain in the 27-24 loss to Florida. He had been doubtful on Wednesday.
How good is Colin Simmons?
He leads the country in sacks (10.5) and tackles for loss (16) this season, per 247Sports.
Does BAI8's Texas v Ole Miss pick include the Simmons news?
No. Our card, Ole Miss 54.5%, was published at 22:08 UTC on 21 October, before Texas listed him as doubtful or out. We do not change a published chance for later news.