Draw no bet explained, with a real price
Draw no bet refunds your stake if the match is drawn. How to turn three-way chances into a fair draw-no-bet price, worked through on a real BAI8 card.
Draw no bet (DNB) is a match-result bet with the draw taken out: if the game is drawn, you get your stake back. You pay for that safety with a shorter price. To find a fair DNB price, take a team's win chance, divide it by the chance the game is not drawn, and turn that into odds.
How it works
A football match has three outcomes. DNB removes one of them by refunding it. So the question becomes: given the game has a winner, how often is it this team?
Fair DNB chance = win chance ÷ (1 − draw chance).
A real card
Our Desk has Norwich v Southampton on Wednesday:
| Outcome | Our chance | Fair price |
|---|---|---|
| Norwich City | 35.0% | 2.86 |
| Draw | 27.0% | 3.71 |
| Southampton | 38.0% | 2.63 |
Take the draw out and Southampton win 38.0 ÷ 73.0, about 52.1% of the games that have a winner. That is a fair DNB price of about 1.92, against 2.63 for the plain win. Both numbers come from the same estimate; one simply refunds the draw. The full card is in Norwich v Southampton prediction and odds.
When it makes sense
- Close games with a big draw share. When the draw is near 30%, DNB removes a large chunk of the ways to lose.
- When you only have a view on who is better. DNB lets you back that view without also betting against a stalemate.
When it does not
- Heavy favourites. A favourite's DNB price is barely shorter than the win price, and the margin often eats the difference.
- When the bookmaker's DNB price is below fair. Compare it with your own number, just like any other market. Why the draw is priced the way it is sits in what the draw is worth in football odds.
What this does not tell you
It does not say DNB is good value at any bookmaker; we have not quoted a DNB price. It turns our own chances into a fair DNB number so you can compare.
18+. Bet only what you can afford to lose.
Common questions
What does draw no bet mean?
You back a team to win. If they win you are paid, if they lose you lose your stake, and if it is a draw your stake is returned.
How do you work out a fair draw-no-bet price?
Take the team's win chance and divide it by the chance that the match is not a draw. One over that number is the fair price.
Is draw no bet better value than the match result?
Not by itself. It is cheaper insurance against the draw, paid for with a shorter price. Value depends on the price against your own chance.