Greece vs Serbia prediction, odds and BAI8 call

BAI8 backs Greece to beat Serbia in Volos on Monday and gives them a 53.6% chance, against 24.6% for a draw and 21.9% for Serbia. The best price we found on Greece, 1.44, is too short to be worth backing, so the verdict is "Likely outcome, unattractive price": Greece are the likeliest result, and the market charges more for that than it is worth.

BAI8 has researched this match: open the Greece vs Serbia page to see the call. The Free plan gives you 5 assessments a month, no card needed. Below are the numbers, the reasoning, the table and the team news.

Kick-off is 21:45 in Greece (19:45 UTC) on Monday 16 November at the Panthessaliko Stadium in Volos, matchday 6 of League A Group 2, per UEFA's match data. It is the last round of the group.

Our prediction

Outcome	BAI8 chance	BAI8 fair price	Best price found
Greece	53.6%	1.87	1.44, Betfred (UK), 11 Nov 19:34 UTC
Draw	24.6%	4.07	4.75, BoyleSports, 11 Nov 19:34 UTC
Serbia	21.9%	4.57	7, Betfred (UK), 11 Nov 19:34 UTC

The fair price is 100 divided by the chance. It is the price at which backing that outcome neither wins nor loses over the long run, if our number is right.

BAI8 assessed this match on 11 November at 19:35 UTC with its v4 ensemble engine, after 13 research passes over 26 sources. The prices were quoted seconds earlier, from different bookmakers, so they are only comparable with each other and have almost certainly moved since. Check the live price before you compare anything.

The verdict, in plain words. Greece clear the 50% line, so they are the likeliest of the three results. But a price of 1.44 only pays if they win 69.4% of the time (1 divided by 1.44). We give them 53.6%. That is a gap of about 16 percentage points against the bettor, and BAI8 puts the edge at -15.9 points. Our range for Greece is wide, 22.4% to 86.6%, and it crosses the break-even line, so even the case for an edge is not robust. Our confidence is moderate (0.595), and the two sources of probability agree closely (0.955).

What it means if you are thinking of betting. A worked example: 10 units at 1.44 return 14.40, a profit of 4.40. To make that fair, Greece would need to win about 7 games in 10. We think it is closer to 5 in 10. The cheapest way to be wrong here is to back the favourite because it is the favourite.

Where the market and BAI8 disagree. Four bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, imply Greece 66.7%, a draw 20.1% and Serbia 13.2%. We have Greece 13.1 points lower, the draw 4.5 higher and Serbia 8.7 higher. The draw at 4.75 implies about 21.1% and Serbia at 7 implies about 14.3%, so both are priced below our chances. That does not make them bets: BAI8's call is on Greece, and it does not rate the other two outcomes as picks. It shows where our number and the market's are furthest apart.

Why we back Greece

Greece are unbeaten and Serbia have no points. Per UEFA's standings before matchday 5, the group reads like this.

	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
Netherlands	4	2	2	0	7	5	8
Greece	4	2	2	0	5	3	8
Germany	4	1	2	1	3	2	5
Serbia	4	0	0	4	3	8	0

Greece's four results, from UEFA's match data: a 2–1 win in Belgrade on 24 September, a 1–0 win at Germany on 27 September, a 2–2 draw with the Netherlands in Thessaloniki on 1 October and a 0–0 draw with Germany on 4 October. Serbia lost 2–1 to Greece, 2–1 to the Netherlands, 2–0 to Germany and 2–1 to the Netherlands again.

The first meeting was close, and it matters for how we read the price. Greece won 2–1 in Belgrade. Our research notes an early home goal and a late away comeback, and that the territorial and chance-creation evidence matters alongside the result. It was not a Greek walkover. The older meetings between the two were friendlies between largely different generations, so we do not use them, and we did not verify the venue and coaching labels attached to them.

The unbeaten run hides very different games. The research reads Greece's opening block as four match scripts. The first game offered sustained attacking volume. Later games asked for far more defending and goalkeeping, and the 0–0 and the 1–0 in Germany are the clearest examples. A side that wins that way is hard to beat but not always easy to separate from a draw, which is why the draw sits at 24.6% in our table.

Serbia lost every game, but not every game the same way. Their attacking output varied a lot, with the performance in Munich markedly weaker than the later outing in the Netherlands. They have also conceded more corners than they have won across the sample. That is a reason to rate them below Greece. It is not a reason to rate them at 13%, which is what the market implies.

Team news. Greece's coach Ivan Jovanović named squads for the Netherlands and Serbia, per Sport24 on 6 November. New in the group are Koutsoupias, Bakasetas, Giannoulis, Rota and Hatzidiakos. Michailidis, Doi, Kyriakopoulos and Mouzakitis are out compared with September. Our research adds that the squad includes returning senior players and a first-time call-up, and that one midfielder's individual programme is the clearest current concern. A call-up is not a start, so treat any line-up as expected until it is confirmed.

Serbia's coach Veljko Paunović named his list on 1 November, per the Serbian FA, for the games against Germany on 13 November and Greece in Volos on 16 November. It includes Vanja Milinković-Savić, Saša Lukić, Lazar Samardžić, Dušan Tadić, Aleksandar Mitrović and Luka Jović. Nemanja Maksimović and Saša Lukić were suspended for the Germany game only, by yellow cards, so the FSS notice does not rule them out here. Since then, Dušan Vlahović has told Paunović he will not join for personal reasons, per Nogomania, and Milan's Strahinja Pavlović was reported unlikely to come because of a kidney problem, per Football Italia. Our research says the squad has changed since it was first announced, and later medical notices take precedence over the first list.

A match to watch first. Both teams play before this one. Serbia face Germany on Friday 13 November. Greece play the Netherlands the same night. We cannot know what those games cost anyone, and the table, the stakes and the availability could all look different by Monday.

Likeliest scores and goals

Score	Chance
1–1	11.7%
1–0	10.1%
2–1	9.8%
2–0	9.4%
0–0	6.6%

Those five add up to under half of the outcomes, and no score reaches one chance in eight. A 1–1 being the likeliest score while Greece are the likeliest result is not a contradiction: there are more ways for Greece to win than for the game to finish level. On goals, BAI8 gives 77.6% for over 1.5, 53.2% for over 2.5 and 30.9% for over 3.5. For the link between table position and prices, see what a Nations League table does to the price.

What could make this wrong

• Our range is wide. Greece sit at 53.6%, but the conservative range runs from 22.4% to 86.6%. For Serbia it runs from 4.3% to 53.6%, and for the draw from 8.7% to 33.7%. That is what honest uncertainty looks like in a single-game international.
• Friday's games. The Netherlands v Greece and Serbia v Germany results, injuries and suspensions will change what each team has left.
• Team news we do not have. A confirmed line-up arrives about an hour before kick-off. Our research notes that no Greek equivalent of a clean coach transcript was established, so we do not quote one.
• Weather and venue. We could not verify a forecast current enough for kick-off, so we assume nothing about it. The research found the home delivery workload is spread across several players and no penalty was awarded to Greece in the sample, so we do not rely on a set-piece or penalty edge.
• The market may know something. The bookmakers' 66.7% is far above our number. The same kind of gap exists on the other Group A2 games, and a gap is a reason to look again, not to assume we are right.

How to think about all of this is in how to bet on football with a model. If you want the numbers for this game rather than the write-up, open the Greece vs Serbia page. The Free plan covers 5 assessments a month, no card needed.

18+. Bet only what you can afford to lose.

What this does not tell you

This is a preview written on 13 November from an assessment made on 11 November. It knows nothing about Friday's games, and it uses prices that have moved. BAI8 does not place bets and holds no bookmaker account, so there is no price here you can take from us. A 53.6% chance is a lean, not a forecast: it means Greece fail to win nearly half the time. The squad notes rely on the federations' announcements and press reports as of today, and a call-up is not a start. Check the live price and the confirmed line-ups before you decide anything.