Serbia vs Germany prediction and team news

BAI8 backs Germany to win in Belgrade on Friday and gives them a 49.5% chance, against 30.3% for a draw and 20.2% for Serbia. That makes Germany the likeliest result, but not a majority, and at the best price BAI8 found (1.33 at Coral) the call on the bet is a pass.

BAI8 has researched this match: open the Serbia vs Germany page to see the full call. The Free plan covers 5 assessments a month, no card needed.

Kick-off is Friday 13 November at 20:45 in Belgrade (19:45 UTC) at the Stadion Rajko Mitić, matchday 5 of League A Group 2, per UEFA's match data. Serbia have no points. Germany are third. The reasoning is below, along with the table and the team news.

Our prediction

BAI8 assessed this match on 8 November at 23:44 UTC, with its v4 ensemble engine, after 13 research passes over 30 sources. Prices were quoted at about 22:00 UTC the same evening.

Outcome	BAI8 chance	BAI8 fair price	Best price found	Where and when quoted
Serbia	20.2%	4.95	10	Betfair, 8 Nov 22:02 UTC
Draw	30.3%	3.30	6.5	BetUS, 8 Nov 22:01 UTC
Germany	49.5%	2.02	1.33	Coral, 8 Nov 22:02 UTC

The verdict, in BAI8's own words: Pass: neither majority likelihood nor positive value. Three reasons sit behind it. Germany's 49.5% does not clear the strict 50% line. It does not beat the break-even chance of the price. And the conservative range crosses break-even, so any apparent edge is not robust.

Here is the arithmetic. A price of 1.33 only pays if Germany win about 75.2% of the time (1 divided by 1.33). BAI8 says 49.5%. Staked 100 at 1.33 on a true 49.5% chance, the average return is 65.8, a long-run loss of about 34 per 100. The gap between the two figures is 25.7 points, and it runs against the bettor.

Serbia at 10 and the draw at 6.5 are not rescued by this either. The bookmaker prices imply 9.8% for Serbia and 15.2% for the draw, and BAI8 puts both higher (20.2% and 30.3%). Those prices are the only ones in this table where BAI8 sees a gap in the bettor's favour, but BAI8 did not rate either as a pick: its call is on Germany, and it does not extend the verdict to the other two outcomes. Prices also move, so check the live price before reading anything into the numbers above.

What it means if you are thinking of betting: BAI8 thinks Germany are the most likely winners and also thinks the market is asking too much of them. The three bookmakers in the sample put Germany near 75%, which is 25 points above the model. When a model and a market are that far apart, the sensible reading is that one has more information or a different view of Germany's form, and the honest answer is that a 49.5% pick is not a bet. For a primer on that reasoning, see how to bet on football with a model.

Why we back Germany

Germany are the best side in this group on paper and beat Serbia 2–0 at the Allianz Arena on 1 October. Tom Bischof scored in the 39th minute, Florian Wirtz added a second in the 61st, and Germany had 16 shots to none in the first half, per the DFB. Serbia's best chances in that game came on counter-attacks. The repeat meeting is in Belgrade, so the model gives Serbia more than they would have had in Munich, but the underlying gap in territory and chances is why Germany lead every other outcome by a distance.

BAI8's confidence in the assessment is moderate (a score of 0.624) and the sources agree closely (0.91). The only signal that moved the number was the model's pattern signals and calibration, which pushed it towards Germany.

The form line cuts both ways:

Team	Results in this group (UEFA)
Germany	1–1 at the Netherlands, 0–1 at home to Greece, 2–0 v Serbia, 0–0 at Greece
Serbia	1–2 v Greece, 1–2 v the Netherlands, 0–2 at Germany, 1–2 at the Netherlands

Germany have won one of four, scored three and conceded two. Serbia have lost all four, scoring three and conceding eight. Three of Serbia's four defeats were by a single goal, which is why a result in Belgrade is not out of reach for them. Germany's attack has also been thin: they scored 2 in that win over Serbia and only 1 in their other three games combined, which is part of why the model does not make them a 75% side.

Klopp's group has had changes. In the Greece defeat in Augsburg on 27 September, he made five changes from the 1–1 draw in Amsterdam, and Greece sat deep and hit on the counter, per the DFB. The BAI8 research notes that Klopp has said the November games will not use two completely different teams, so expect a mix of experience and the newer names rather than a full second XI. That is a statement of intent, not a line-up.

Table and what is at stake

	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
Netherlands	4	2	2	0	7	5	8
Greece	4	2	2	0	5	3	8
Germany	4	1	2	1	3	2	5
Serbia	4	0	0	4	3	8	0

Table per UEFA before matchday 5. Two teams from the group qualify. On Friday the Netherlands play Greece in Amsterdam at the same time (19:45 UTC), and on Monday 16 November Germany host the Netherlands in Berlin while Serbia travel to Greece.

For Germany, a win would take them to 8 points, level with the leaders before the other result is known. That is the stake: three points keep them in the race to finish top two with one game left, a draw or defeat makes Monday close to decisive. For Serbia, the bottom of the table and a second win over a tournament favourite are about pride and rating, not a place in the top two, because their maximum is 6 points. For how a table like this shapes a price, see what a Nations League table does to the price. The same logic is used on the earlier preview of Italy vs France.

Team news

Germany (per the DFB):

• Waldemar Anton (Borussia Dortmund) withdrew with muscle problems and will not travel. Ridle Baku (RB Leipzig), 28, with eight caps, was called up in his place.
• Niclas Füllkrug (Werder Bremen) returns. He has 24 caps and nine Bundesliga goals this season.
• Wael Mohya (Borussia Mönchengladbach) has his first senior selection. He had previously played for the under-21s.
• Beyond those, the November squad includes Wirtz, Kimmich, Havertz and Nübel, per the roster in BAI8's research. No further withdrawal was found in the sources read.

Serbia (per the FSS and RTS):

• Dragan Stojković's successor as coach, Veljko Paunović, named 29 players on 1 November, including Aleksandar Mitrović and Dušan Vlahović up front and Dušan Tadić, who is the captain.
• The FSS page lists Nemanja Maksimović and Saša Lukić as unavailable for this match through yellow-card suspensions.
• RTS headlines dated 10 November say Aleksandar Stanković is out injured, and that Filip Kostić is also unavailable. The articles give no detail on the length of either absence, and no replacement was named in the pages read.

Take those Serbian items as reported, not as a confirmed team sheet. Line-ups come out about an hour before kick-off.

The crowd. The Serbian federation says that, after further talks with UEFA, the match will be played without spectators, and that the away sector stays closed, so the planned 2,000 away fans cannot attend. UEFA rules allow up to 200 first-category seats for away fans, and children up to 14 can attend as part of organised groups from schools, clubs or academies. The DFB confirms that German supporters cannot attend. An empty stadium is a rare thing for a Belgrade home game, and removes the atmosphere that normally lifts Serbia, although the research does not quantify that effect.

Likeliest scores and goals

Score	BAI8 chance
Serbia 0–1 Germany	16.7%
0–0	14.0%
1–1	13.1%
Serbia 0–2 Germany	11.1%
Serbia 1–0 Germany	9.0%

The single likeliest score is a one-goal Germany win, and three of the top five scores keep the game low. On goals, BAI8 gives 60.3% to over 1.5, 32.6% to over 2.5 and 14.4% to over 3.5. This is a model that expects a tight night: the four Serbian results in the group have all been decided by two goals or fewer, and the draw is the second-likeliest outcome at 30.3%.

What could make this wrong

• The range is wide. Germany's 49.5% sits inside a range of 31.6% to 70.7%. Serbia's runs from 8.9% to 35.1% and the draw's from 19.6% to 38.0%. The honest reading is that Germany are favourites, not near-certainties.
• A one-goal game. A 0–1 and a 1–1 look alike for ninety minutes. One deflection moves the result from Germany's column to the draw's.
• Rotation. Klopp's selection has changed from match to match, and Germany lost the one game in which he made five changes at home.
• Unknowns. BAI8's research could not establish a complete verified answer on the weather, the venue effect with an empty stadium, or the full Germany availability. Those stay uncertain, not zero.
• The market could be right. Three bookmakers agree on about 75% for Germany. If the model is too low on a side that beat Serbia 2–0 with 16 first-half shots to none, the pass becomes a missed price rather than a good call.

To see how the call was built and the reasoning behind each figure, open the Serbia vs Germany page. The Free plan covers 5 assessments a month, no card needed. More Nations League predictions sit on the same page.

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What this does not tell you

This is a pre-match read built on information up to 8 November for the model and up to 11 November for the team news. Prices moved after 22:00 UTC on 8 November and will move again. The Serbian absences come from a federation page and newspaper headlines that give no detail, and the line-ups are not out. The model reads the three bookmakers it found, not the whole market. A 49.5% chance is a probability, not a forecast of what happens on Friday, and BAI8 passes on this price. BAI8 does not take bets and has no bookmaker account.