Netherlands vs Greece prediction and team news

BAI8 backs the Netherlands to beat Greece on Friday, giving them a 51.1% chance, but the best price we found on them, 1.49, is far too short to be worth backing. The draw is 25.7% and Greece 23.2%. The verdict is "Likely outcome, unattractive price": the Netherlands are the likeliest result, and the market still charges more than that is worth.

BAI8 has researched this match: open the Netherlands vs Greece page to see the call. The Free plan gives you 5 assessments a month, no card needed. Below are the numbers, the reasoning, the table and the team news.

Kick-off is 20:45 in Amsterdam (19:45 UTC) on Friday 13 November at the Johan Cruijff ArenA, matchday 5 of League A Group 2, per UEFA's match data and the KNVB.

Our prediction

Outcome	BAI8 chance	BAI8 fair price	Best price found
Netherlands	51.1%	1.96	1.49, Unibet (SE), 8 Nov 22:02 UTC
Draw	25.7%	3.90	5.10, Courtside, 8 Nov 22:01 UTC
Greece	23.2%	4.31	7.50, Betfred (UK), 8 Nov 22:02 UTC

The fair price is 100 divided by the chance. It is the price at which backing that outcome neither wins nor loses over the long run if our number is right.

Our assessment was made on 8 November at 23:38 UTC, after those prices were quoted. The three prices came from different bookmakers at slightly different moments, so check live prices before comparing anything.

The verdict, in plain words. The Netherlands clear the 50% line, so they are the likeliest of the three results. But a price of 1.49 only pays if they win 67.1% of the time (1 divided by 1.49). We give them 51.1%. That is a gap of 16 percentage points against the bettor. Our own range for the Netherlands is wide, 22.2% to 81.1%, and it crosses the break-even point, so even the case for an edge is not robust. In BAI8's wording, it is not an edge you could lean on.

What it means if you are thinking of betting. A worked example: 10 units at 1.49 return 14.90, a profit of 4.90. To make that fair, the Netherlands would need to win about two games in three. We think it is closer to one in two. The cheapest way to be wrong here is to back the favourite because it is the favourite. The other two columns show the market leaning the other way: the draw at 5.10 against our fair 3.90, and Greece at 7.50 against our fair 4.31, are both longer than our numbers. That does not make them good bets, because our range on Greece (5.6% to 51.7%) is also very wide. It does show where the market and BAI8 disagree.

Why we back the Netherlands

The market is more confident than we are. Three bookmakers' prices, with the margin taken out, imply Netherlands 66.5%, draw 20.1% and Greece 13.4%. We have the Netherlands 15 points lower and Greece nearly 10 points higher. Our model leans home too: pattern signals and calibration add about 0.108 of a point to the home side. We side with the Netherlands, but we do not think the price reflects how even the last meeting was.

The last meeting was level. On 1 October in Thessaloniki, Greece led 2–0 (Ioannidis at 13 minutes, Masouras on the stroke of half-time) and the Netherlands came back to 2–2, with Virgil van Dijk heading in a corner on 59 minutes and Reijnders scoring late, per the Hellenic Football Federation. Dutch coach Xavi said afterwards the first half was his fault and described the Greek low block. Over the four games each side has played, the Netherlands have 30 corners for and 14 against, Greece 16 for and 21 against, per the research behind our call. Greece are harder to break down than they are to score against.

The group so far. Neither team has lost. The Netherlands have won twice and drawn twice, scoring 7 and conceding 5. Greece have won twice and drawn twice, scoring 5 and conceding 3. Our research notes that the Dutch sample includes Serbia twice, who have no points and a goal difference of −5, so not every clean result is equal-strength evidence.

Team news, Netherlands. The KNVB squad has 25 players. Hato, Aké, Frimpong and Gravenberch are out because they are not fit, per NOS. Kenneth Taylor is also left out, with no reason given. Frenkie de Jong returns after a knee injury he suffered at the World Cup, and so does Ian Maatsen. Mexx Meerdink, who has been in the penalty conversation under Xavi, is in. The squad lists no withdrawals.

Team news, Greece. Ivan Jovanovic's squad brings in Koutsoupias, Bakasetas, Giannoulis, Rota and Chatzidiakos, per Sport24. Tzolis went off injured on 1 October, but is in the November squad. The fresh worry is Dimitris Kourbelis, who went down with knee discomfort late in Asteras's 1–1 draw with Kalamata on 8 November. Gazzetta says the first assessment "does not appear serious" and he remains in the squad, with a fuller update still due when it was written. We treat his availability as open.

Rest and travel. The Dutch camp starts on 9 November in Zeist and the team then flies to Germany for 16 November. The Greek squad returns for Serbia the same day. Neither side has a travel edge.

What is at stake

	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
Netherlands	4	2	2	0	7	5	8
Greece	4	2	2	0	5	3	8
Germany	4	1	2	1	3	2	5
Serbia	4	0	0	4	3	8	0

Table per UEFA before matchday 5. Both leaders have a goal difference of +2. UEFA lists the Netherlands first, and other federations' tables have ordered the two differently, so read the order as a tie.

A winner on Friday goes to 11 points and gets ahead of the other with one game left. A draw keeps both on 9. The final fixtures are Germany v Netherlands in Berlin and Greece v Serbia in Volos, both on Monday 16 November. For how a table like this changes what teams will risk, see what a Nations League table does to the price.

Likeliest scores and goals

Score	Chance
1–1	12.2%
1–0	10.7%
2–1	9.6%
2–0	9.3%
0–0	7.4%

The single likeliest score is a draw, even though the likeliest result is a Dutch win, because a win is spread across many scores. On goals, BAI8 has over 1.5 at 75.4%, over 2.5 at 50.3% and over 3.5 at 28.3%. Over 2.5 is a coin flip. The 2–2 in October is the only meeting of this coach pairing, and it is a sample of one.

For a comparison from the same group stage, see how we handled another high-stakes night in Italy vs France.

What could make this wrong

• A wide range. Netherlands 22.2% to 81.1%, draw 11.8% to 32.8%, Greece 5.6% to 51.7%. The research is solid but the sample of international games is small, and each side has played only four.
• Squad news that moves late. Kourbelis is unresolved, and Greek and Dutch line-ups are not announced yet. We do not know either starting eleven.
• Dutch rotation. Xavi has used several systems in his first games as coach. A new combination in midfield, with De Jong back and Gravenberch out, is a real unknown.
• A different Greek first half. Greece scored twice before the break in October. If they score first again and sit deep, the chances move.
• Venue conditions. The forecast outlook was dry and cool, but there is no stadium forecast for kick-off yet.
• Pricing. The prices we compared are from 8 November. Bookmakers move after squads and injury news.

Open the Netherlands vs Greece page to see the call, the research behind it and the prices as they stand. The Free plan covers 5 assessments a month, no card needed. If you want the method behind the numbers, how to bet on football with a model explains it.

18+. Bet only what you can afford to lose.

What this does not tell you

It does not tell you who will win. A 51.1% favourite loses nearly half the time. It does not use line-ups, which are not out yet, and it does not know how Kourbelis is. The bookmaker prices are a snapshot from 8 November, from three bookmakers, and the best price on each outcome came from a different one. The score and goal figures are model outputs, not forecasts of a certain result. BAI8 does not place bets and holds no bookmaker account, so nothing here is an instruction to back anyone.