Hearts without Magnusson and Miller: the Thun price
Our 47.6% for Hearts in Thun was set before Sunday's injuries. How far it would have to fall before 2.70 stops being value, with the sums.
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Our Hearts number for Thursday is older than the news. The Desk gave Hearts 47.6% to win in Thun when it published the card at 16:10 UTC on 30 October. Two days later Hearts lost Tomas Magnusson and Calvin Miller in the cup semi-final against Hibs, taking the injury list to ten. The best price we saw since, 2.70 at Unibet at 03:48 UTC on 3 November, implies 37.0%. So the question is simple: did the injuries knock more than 10.5 points off Hearts' real chance? Our honest answer is probably not that much, but some, and the edge you read on the card is too big.
The full preview, with form and the three-way numbers, is in Thun vs Hearts prediction, odds and team news.
What changed after the card was priced
When the card went up, Hearts were already without defenders Christian Borchgrevink, Craig Halkett and Harry Milne, midfielders Oisin McEntee, Blair Spittal, Tom Renaud and Eduardo Ageu, and forward Rogers Mato. On Sunday 1 November, in the 2–1 Premier Sports Cup semi-final defeat by Hibs:
- Magnusson, the Iceland midfielder, went to hospital with concussion. Wouter Vrancken says he will not play before the international break.
- Miller, a winger who can cover right-back, left Hampden on crutches with a knee brace.
Per the Edinburgh Evening News, Yan Dhanda is not in the European squad and UEFA's league-phase rules leave no room to add him, because Hearts already used their one outfield replacement on Malachi Fagan-Walcott for Spittal. That leaves Laurent Mendy, who was playing in the fifth tier before this season, as the only fit midfielder. Vrancken also doubts Stephen Kingsley can play on Thun's artificial pitch and again on Sunday.
That is a real loss. It is concentrated in one area, central midfield, and it lands on an away game on a surface Hearts do not play on at home.
Why our number did not move
The Desk sets a chance once, when it publishes the card, and keeps it. Only the bookmaker price beside it refreshes. That is deliberate: it stops the record from being quietly rewritten after the fact, and it means every call can be graded against what we said before the game. The cost is the case in front of you, where news after publication makes the number stale. We would rather show you that than hide it. More on why in how BAI8 prices a fixture.
The bookmaker price, by contrast, was quoted on 3 November, after the news. So the 2.70 already includes whatever the market thinks the injuries are worth. The edge on the card compares a pre-injury chance with a post-injury price, which flatters it.
How far the chance can fall before 2.70 stops paying
Here is the same 2.70 price against different Hearts chances. The first row is our published number. The rest are what-ifs, not our estimates.
| If Hearts' real chance is | Edge at 2.70 | Expected return per unit |
|---|---|---|
| 47.6% (our card) | +10.5 pts | +28.5% |
| 45% | +8.0 pts | +21.5% |
| 42% | +5.0 pts | +13.4% |
| 40% | +3.0 pts | +8.0% |
| 37% | 0.0 pts | about 0% |
| 35% | −2.0 pts | −5.5% |
Edge is the chance minus the price's implied chance (1 / 2.70 = 37.0%). Expected return is the chance times 2.70, minus one.
To lose the whole edge, the injuries would need to cut Hearts' chance by more than a fifth of its value, from 47.6% to 37.0%. One missing midfielder rarely does that by itself. Two key ones, plus a makeshift right-back, on an artificial pitch, in Europe, can be worth several points. A few points off still leaves a positive number at 2.70. Ten points off does not.
What we would do with it
Treat 47.6% as a ceiling, not a midpoint. If you hold a view that the injuries are worth, say, five points, the bet is still positive at 2.70 on our framework, with a smaller edge, and the stake should be smaller to match. Staking in proportion to edge is covered in what Kelly actually tells you to do.
If the price drifts, the sums change. At 2.90 the break-even chance is 34.5%; at 2.40 it is 41.7%. Check the price on the card on the day, not the one in this piece.
What this does not tell you
It does not give a new BAI8 chance for Hearts: the Desk did not reprice the card, and the what-if rows above are arithmetic, not a model. It does not know Thursday's line-up, which is where the real answer to the midfield question will be. And a 47.6% call, or a 40% one, loses more often than it wins over a single match.
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Common questions
Do the Hearts injuries change BAI8's Thun pick?
Our published chance does not move after the card goes up, so it still reads 47.6% for Hearts. It was set on 30 October, before Magnusson and Miller were hurt on 1 November, so treat it as an upper bound.
How far can the Hearts chance fall before 2.70 is not value?
To 37.0%. That is the chance a 2.70 price implies. Above it the bet has a positive edge on that number; below it, it does not.
How many Hearts players are out against Thun?
Ten first-team players, per the Edinburgh Evening News, with Laurent Mendy the only fit specialist midfielder in the European squad.