Key numbers in American football: 3 and 7
Why 3 and 7 are the key numbers in American football betting: how often NFL games end on each margin, what that does to a spread, and where it stops.
On this page
The key numbers in American football betting are 3 and 7, because most scoring comes in field goals (3 points) and converted touchdowns (7). In a study of 7,276 NFL games from 1999 to 2025, TheSharpBook found exactly 3 points decided 15.1% of games and exactly 7 decided 9.0%. Together that is almost a quarter of all games ending on two margins. A spread that sits on or crosses those numbers behaves very differently from one that does not.
How often each margin comes up
| Final margin (NFL) | Share of games | How it is usually made |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | 15.1% | One field goal |
| 7 | 9.0% | One converted touchdown |
| 6 | 6.0% | Two field goals, or a touchdown with a missed extra point |
| 10 | 5.5% | Field goal plus touchdown |
| 4 | 4.9% | Touchdown minus field goal |
| 14 | 4.9% | Two touchdowns |
| 1 | 4.2% | |
| 2 | 4.1% |
Figures from TheSharpBook's study. BetMGM's count since 2000 is almost the same: 14.97% for 3 and 9.09% for 7. Ties were 0.2% of games.
What it does to a spread
If a favourite is −3 and wins by exactly 3, the bet pushes and the stake comes back. That happened with 9.0% of NFL closing lines of 3 in the same study, the highest push rate of any number. So a half point either side of 3 is worth a lot: −2.5 wins every one of those games for the favourite backer, −3.5 loses every one. The same half point between −11 and −10.5 changes far fewer results, because 11 is not a common margin. The basics of the market are in point spread betting explained.
Bookmakers know this too. TheSharpBook notes that buying a half point across 3 or 7 usually costs more than the standard margin.
Where our cards fit
The BAI8 Desk prices the moneyline, who wins, not the spread. So key numbers do not change our chance; they change how the spread market around the same game should be read. Arizona are 10.5-point favourites over Iowa State on Saturday, per CollegeFFB, and our card makes them 70.0% to win. That is a college game, though, and the margins above are NFL ones; the card is in Arizona v Iowa State prediction and odds.
What this does not tell you
It is a description of how scores fall, not a way to win: bookmakers set lines with these numbers in mind. The figures are NFL averages over 27 seasons in which rules changed (the 2015 extra-point move nudged 7 down and 6 up), and they do not transfer to college football, where scoring and rules differ. Nothing here says any line is good value.
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Common questions
What are key numbers in American football betting?
The winning margins that come up most often, because scores move in field goals (3) and touchdowns (7). In NFL games from 1999 to 2025, exactly 3 points decided 15.1% of games and exactly 7 decided 9.0%.
Why do key numbers matter for a spread?
A line sitting on a key number pushes often, and moving a line across one changes the result of many games. A half point from −3 to −2.5 matters far more than one from −11 to −10.5.
What are the other common NFL margins?
After 3 and 7, the study found 6 (6.0%), 10 (5.5%), 4 and 14 (4.9% each), all combinations of field goals and touchdowns.
Do NFL key numbers apply to college football?
Not directly. The figures here come from NFL games only; college scoring and rules differ, so check college data before carrying them over.