Point spread betting explained
A point spread handicaps the favourite so both sides are near even money. How to read -2.5 and +2.5, what a push is, and how it relates to win chances.
On this page
A point spread is a handicap. The bookmaker takes points off the favourite and gives them to the underdog until the two sides are roughly even, then prices both close to even money. You are no longer betting on who wins; you are betting on whether the favourite wins by more than the spread.
It is the main market in American football and basketball, which is why it matters in October, with the NBA starting and the NFL in full swing.
How to read a spread
Take a real line. Statz reports bet365 had the Brooklyn Nets at +2.5 for their opener against the Charlotte Hornets on 21 October. That makes Charlotte -2.5.
- Charlotte -2.5 wins if Charlotte win by three or more.
- Brooklyn +2.5 wins if Brooklyn win outright, or lose by one or two.
Add the spread to the team's final score and see who is ahead. That is all the arithmetic there is. The minus sign marks the favourite, the plus sign the underdog.
Pushes and half points
If the favourite wins by exactly the spread, the bet is a push: neither side wins and stakes come back. A -3 favourite winning by three is a push. Bookmakers often use half-point lines such as -2.5 or -6.5 precisely so a push cannot happen.
In the NFL, three and seven matter a lot because so many games end with those margins, so moving a line across them is a bigger change than moving it from 4.5 to 5.5. In basketball, scoring is more even and no single margin dominates in the same way.
Spread versus moneyline
The moneyline asks who wins. The spread asks by how much. They are two views of the same game, and a sensible spread and moneyline should agree with each other. A small favourite on the spread is a modest favourite on the moneyline.
Our Desk cards price the moneyline, so the edge is our win chance against the moneyline price. On that game we make Brooklyn 60.8% to win outright and saw 2.18, a 14.9 point gap; the full card is in Nets v Hornets prediction and odds. A spread bet on Brooklyn +2.5 would be a different bet with a different chance, and we do not publish a number for it. How a short moneyline favourite behaves is in moneyline edge when the favourite is short.
What this does not tell you
It does not tell you which spread to bet. It does not convert our win chances into a spread chance; that needs a model of winning margins, which our cards do not publish. Spreads also move with injury news, and the line you see may not be the line that is offered at tip-off.
18+. Bet only what you can afford to lose.
Common questions
What is a point spread in betting?
A handicap set by the bookmaker. The favourite must win by more than the spread, and the underdog covers by losing by less than it, or winning outright. Both sides are usually priced close to even money.
What does +2.5 mean in a spread?
The team gets 2.5 points added to its final score. A +2.5 underdog covers if it loses by one or two points, or wins.
What is a push in spread betting?
When the favourite wins by exactly the spread, for example by 3 on a -3 line. The bet is void and stakes are returned. Half-point lines like -2.5 cannot push.
Is a spread bet better than a moneyline bet?
Neither is better in itself. They price the same game two ways. What matters is whether your chance of the outcome is higher than the price implies.