Monday's nine calls: five won, two edges lost

BAI8 settled 9 calls from Monday 19 October: 5 won, 4 lost. At the quoted prices, one unit on each came to +0.22 units. Only one of our three positive-edge calls landed, the Tampa Bay Rays, while Cagliari and Rayo Vallecano lost. On our own chances we expected about four winners from these nine, so five is a touch better than the numbers said. Every call is below, the misses included.

Every call, settled

Sorted from the widest positive edge to the most negative. Times are kick-off in UTC, so the three North American games started on Monday evening local time.

Fixture	Our pick	Our chance	Price seen	Edge	Result
Monza v Cagliari	Cagliari	39.0%	3.30, Betfair	+8.7 pts	Lost
Tampa Bay Rays v Cleveland Guardians	Rays	59.8%	1.71, Betfair	+1.3 pts	Won
Getafe v Rayo Vallecano	Rayo Vallecano	35.6%	2.84, Betfair	+0.4 pts	Lost
Parma v Torino	Torino	37.5%	2.60, Betfair	−1.0 pts	Won
Trabzonspor v Beşiktaş	Beşiktaş	39.2%	2.32, Betfair	−3.9 pts	Lost
Toronto Maple Leafs v San Jose Sharks	Maple Leafs	45.5%	1.80, Betfair	−10.1 pts	Won
Utah Mammoth v Pittsburgh Penguins	Mammoth	49.0%	1.57, Betfair	−14.7 pts	Won
Tottenham v Coventry City	Tottenham	47.0%	1.54, 1xBet	−17.9 pts	Won
Braga v Gil Vicente	Braga	42.6%	1.62, Betfair	−19.1 pts	Lost

The day against our own numbers

	Calls	Expected wins	Actual wins	Units
Positive edge	3	1.3	1	−1.29
Negative edge	6	2.6	4	+1.51
All	9	4.0	5	+0.22

Expected wins is simply our chances added up. The positive-edge group came in a little under that, the negative-edge group a little over. Neither gap is much bigger than one result, which on nine calls is noise.

What went right and what did not

Cagliari was our widest call and it lost heavily. Monza won 4–0, per Cagliari Calcio's match report. We had Cagliari at 39.0% against a price that implied about 30%, and the full write-up, including what the research missed, is in Monza v Cagliari prediction and odds.

Rayo was a near-zero edge. At +0.4 points the price and our chance almost agreed, so the loss says very little either way. Why we still publish calls like that is in what a near-zero edge is telling you.

The short favourites mostly won. Tottenham and the Utah Mammoth won, Braga lost. All three were negative-edge calls, which means we thought the price was too short even though we picked the side most likely to win.

Where the record stands

176 settled calls, 110 won and 66 lost, +14.73 units on the public record. Monday added a little to the weekend, which is about what one quiet day should do. Sunday's very different day is in Sunday's 24 calls, and five edges that all won.

What this does not tell you

Nine calls tell you almost nothing about whether our edges are real. A single 4–0 can swing a day, and the record only becomes informative over hundreds of calls, which is the argument in how many bets before a record means anything. The units assume one unit at the exact quoted price, which you may not have got.

18+. Bet only what you can afford to lose.