Northern Illinois v Hawaii prediction and odds

We make Northern Illinois favourites at home to Hawaii: Northern Illinois 55.5%, Hawaii 44.5%. The best price we saw on the Huskies was 2.68 at Courtside, against our fair price of 1.80. That is an 18.2 point positive edge. At 2.68 the bookmaker gives Northern Illinois about 37%, and USA Today lists Hawaii as 4.5-point favourites, so we disagree with the market about who should be favoured, not by a point or two. The number is an estimate, not a promise.

Kick-off is 19:30 UTC on Saturday 24 October (3:30 p.m. Eastern) at Huskie Stadium in DeKalb, Illinois. It is a Mountain West game and, per Hawaii Athletics, the first time these two have met.

Our numbers

Outcome	Our chance	Fair price	Best price seen	Edge
Northern Illinois Huskies	55.5%	1.80	2.68, Courtside	+18.2 pts
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors	44.5%	2.25

The 2.68 was quoted at 04:36 UTC on 22 October, about 63 hours before kick-off. ESPN's own matchup predictor has Hawaii at 54.2%, nearly a mirror image of ours, which is a useful reminder that two models can read the same game in opposite directions.

Two teams that have struggled

• Records. Northern Illinois are 0–6 (0–2 Mountain West). Hawaii are 1–6 (0–4) and have lost four straight. Their only win was 29–19 against New Mexico State on 12 September, per StatsNext.
• Scoring. StatsNext ranks Hawaii 132nd of 136 teams for points a game (15.7) and Northern Illinois 135th (14.2). Northern Illinois allow 35.7 points a game; Hawaii allow 25.0.
• Where each side wins and loses. Hawaii pass well (267.7 yards a game, 29th) but run worst in the country (77.4, 136th). Northern Illinois give up 228.5 rushing yards a game, the fourth most. Hawaii's weakness meets Northern Illinois's weakness, which narrows the gap.
• Ball security. SuperWest Sports counts five Hawaii turnovers in their last three games.

What the research weighs

Home field and travel carry real weight here. Hawaii are 0–3 away this season, scoring 16.3 and conceding 31.3 points a game on the road, against 15.3 and 20.3 at home, per StatsNext. SuperWest puts the trip at about 4,000 miles, with a five-hour time difference. Quarterback Micah Alejado has 1,863 passing yards for Hawaii; Taron Dickens has 1,193 for Northern Illinois, per ESPN.

What could make us wrong

Northern Illinois have not won a game, and backing a winless team is backing a side the market has watched lose six times. If Hawaii's passing game is as good against this secondary as SuperWest expects, the home edge will not matter. Our number also leans on travel and home form from small samples: three away games is not much evidence.

What this does not tell you

It does not say Northern Illinois will win; on our numbers they lose about 45 times in 100. It covers the moneyline only, not the spread or the total, and the 2.68 is one bookmaker's quote at one moment. How a spread differs from this market is in point spread betting explained.

18+. Bet only what you can afford to lose.