Saturday 17 October results: 14 of 24 calls won

BAI8 settled 24 calls from Saturday 17 October: 14 won, 10 lost. That is more wins than our own chances expected, yet at the quoted prices one unit on each call came to −0.20 units. The reason is in the edges: our four positive-edge calls won once, and most of the winners were short favourites we rated below the price. Every call is below, the misses included.

Every call, settled

Sorted from the widest positive edge to the most negative.

Fixture	Our pick	Our chance	Price seen	Edge	Result
Everton v Chelsea	Everton	41.3%	3.35, Betfair	+11.5 pts	Lost
Venezia v Napoli	Napoli	61.4%	1.81, Matchbook	+6.2 pts	Lost
Schalke v Mainz	Mainz	47.7%	2.34, Betfair	+4.9 pts	Won
Brentford v Liverpool	Brentford	41.4%	2.54, Betfair	+2.1 pts	Lost
Elversberg v Augsburg	Elversberg	38.1%	2.60, Betfair	−0.4 pts	Won
Newcastle v Aston Villa	Newcastle	38.9%	2.38, Betfair	−3.1 pts	Lost
SC Telstar v Feyenoord	Feyenoord	70.0%	1.36, Betfair	−3.5 pts	Won
West Brom v Blackburn Rovers	West Brom	46.4%	1.99, Betfair	−3.8 pts	Won
Valencia v Athletic Bilbao	Athletic	38.7%	2.30, Coolbet	−4.7 pts	Lost
Bologna v Inter Milan	Inter	52.5%	1.69, 1xBet	−6.6 pts	Won
Erzurum BB v Eyüpspor	Erzurum BB	53.3%	1.65, betPARX	−7.3 pts	Won
Hamburg v VfB Stuttgart	Stuttgart	44.8%	1.90, Betfair	−7.9 pts	Lost
Troyes v RC Lens	Lens	45.1%	1.88, Betfair	−8.1 pts	Won
Lille v Brest	Lille	42.3%	1.92, Betfair	−9.8 pts	Lost
Werder Bremen v SC Paderborn	Werder Bremen	42.6%	1.84, 1xBet	−11.8 pts	Lost
Aberdeen v St Mirren	Aberdeen	41.4%	1.86, Betfair	−12.3 pts	Won
Strasbourg v PSG	PSG	54.3%	1.46, 1xBet	−14.2 pts	Won
Fulham v Hull City	Fulham	40.3%	1.77, 1xBet	−16.2 pts	Won
AS Roma v Genoa	Roma	49.4%	1.51, Matchbook	−16.9 pts	Won
North Dakota State v Nevada	North Dakota State	67.8%	1.17, Betfair	−17.7 pts	Won
ADO Den Haag v PSV Eindhoven	PSV	58.8%	1.29, Betfair	−18.7 pts	Lost
Villarreal v Elche CF	Villarreal	47.3%	1.51, 1xBet	−18.9 pts	Lost
Bayern Munich v RB Leipzig	Bayern	58.3%	1.26, 1xBet	−21.0 pts	Won
Manchester City v Ipswich Town	Man City	57.5%	1.26, GTbets	−21.8 pts	Won

What went right and what did not

The calls we liked most did worst. Everton at +11.5 points lost 0–2 to Chelsea, as we wrote up in Everton v Chelsea prediction and odds. Napoli at +6.2 lost 1–0 at Venezia: Akor Adams scored on 49 minutes and Filip Stanković saved a Kevin De Bruyne penalty, per Lega Serie A. Brentford did not beat Liverpool. Mainz, at +4.9, were the one that landed.

Two late shocks against short favourites. PSV went down to ten men and lost 2–1 at ADO Den Haag to a goal in the 93rd minute, per Goal.com. Villarreal, at 1.51, were held 0–0 at home by Elche, per Cadena SER. Both were negative-edge calls: the market rated those teams higher than we did, and still they did not win.

The short favourites mostly came in. Bayern, Manchester City, PSG, Inter, Roma, Fulham and Feyenoord all won. Each was a call where our chance sat below the price, so the market was more confident than we were, and each paid little.

The day in numbers

	Calls	Won	Expected wins (sum of our chances)
All 24	24	14	11.8
Positive edge	4	1	1.9
Zero or negative edge	20	13	9.9

Fourteen wins against 11.8 expected is a good day on the count and a flat day on the money. One from four against 1.9 expected on the positive-edge calls is the part we care about, and four calls is far too few to read anything into. Why is in how many bets before a record means anything. The record now stands at 142 settled calls, 89 won and 53 lost, +8.26 units.

What this does not tell you

It does not tell you what you would have made: prices moved after these quotes, and nobody would have backed all 24. It does not grade the research on one day. Twenty of the 24 calls had a zero or negative edge, which means the market priced them at least as well as we did. Why we publish those anyway is in why BAI8 publishes negative-edge calls. The full record is at the BAI8 record.

18+. Bet only what you can afford to lose.