Shots on target betting explained
Shots on target bets need a shot that would have scored without a save. What counts, woodwork and blocks, player and team lines, and a worked fair price.
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Shots on target betting is a football market on how many shots a player or a team will put on target. A shot is on target if it goes in, or would have gone in without a save or a block on the line by the last defender. A shot that hits the post and stays out does not count, and nor does one blocked by an outfield player. "Player 1+ shots on target" is the most common line; team totals such as "over 4.5 shots on target" are the other.
What counts and what does not
Bookmakers settle on Opta's definitions, per Betfair and Paddy Power:
| What happens | Shot on target? |
|---|---|
| Goal | Yes |
| Saved by the goalkeeper | Yes |
| Cleared off the line by the last defender | Yes |
| Hits the post or bar and stays out | No |
| Blocked by an outfield player | No |
| Goes wide or over | No |
| Own goal | No, not for the attacking player |
The woodwork rule catches most people out. A shot that clips the inside of the post and goes in is a goal and counts. The same shot an inch wider, coming back off the post, is not on target at all.
Player lines
The usual player markets are 1+, 2+ and 3+ shots on target. Most books count only shots while the player is on the pitch, and void the bet if he does not play. A striker who is substituted after an hour carries an hour's worth of chances, not 90 minutes'.
A worked fair price
Shots on target are counted events, so a Poisson distribution is a fair first model. You need the player's expected shots on target for this match, adjusted for minutes and opponent. The numbers below are illustrative, not a BAI8 forecast.
| Expected shots on target | 1+ | 2+ |
|---|---|---|
| 0.6 (a winger) | 45.1% (2.22) | 12.2% (8.20) |
| 1.1 (a busy striker) | 66.7% (1.50) | 30.1% (3.32) |
| 1.6 (a striker against a weak side) | 79.8% (1.25) | 47.5% (2.10) |
The figure in brackets is the fair price, 1 divided by the chance. For the busy striker, 1+ is about 66.7%, fair at 1.50. A bookmaker offering 1.65 implies 60.6%, about six points under the estimate; one offering 1.40 implies 71.4%, a price shorter than fair. How to read that gap is in what a positive edge actually means.
Team lines
Team shots on target work the same way with a bigger average. A side expected to put five shots on target goes over 4.5 about 56% of the time on a Poisson model, a fair price near 1.79. The number swings hard with game state. Crystal Palace managed two shots in total, with 0.14 expected goals, in their 2–0 home defeat by Tottenham on 31 October, per ESPN, against 34 for Spurs. That came after an early red card, which is exactly the kind of event a pre-match line cannot see.
Where the match result fits in
How much a team shoots depends on how the game goes. A side that is expected to dominate gets more shots; a near-level match spreads them more evenly. Thursday's Desk card for Crystal Palace v Hoffenheim is about as level as our cards get:
| Desk card, Palace v Hoffenheim | Our chance | Fair price |
|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace | 36.3% | 2.75 |
| Draw | 26.9% | 3.72 |
| Hoffenheim | 36.8% | 2.72 |
Our full card is in Crystal Palace vs Hoffenheim prediction, odds and team news. Goal markets that come from the same numbers are in over/under 2.5 goals explained.
What could make the sum wrong
- Minutes. A late fitness test or an early substitution cuts a player's chances more than any form line.
- Data definitions. A shot deflected wide, or a header the keeper claims, can be scored differently from how it looked live.
- Margin. Player markets are thin, margins are wide and limits low. What that costs is in what the bookmaker's margin really costs you.
What this does not tell you
It does not give you a shots price for any real player. BAI8 does not price shots markets; our Desk cards price the match result only, and the worked example is illustrative. It is an estimate method, not a promise.
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Common questions
What counts as a shot on target in betting?
A shot that goes in, or would have gone in without a save by the goalkeeper or a block by the last defender on the line. Most bookmakers settle on Opta's data, per Betfair and Paddy Power.
Does hitting the post count as a shot on target?
No. A shot that hits the woodwork and does not go in is not on target under the Opta definition bookmakers use. If it goes in off the post, it is a goal, and that counts.
Do blocked shots count as shots on target?
No, if an outfield player blocks it before it reaches the goal line. A shot cleared off the line by the last defender does count, per the Opta definitions bookmakers settle on.
What happens to a shots on target bet if the player is substituted?
The bet stands once he has played any part, and only shots while he is on the pitch count. If he does not play at all, most bookmakers void the bet. Check the rules of the book you use.
Does BAI8 price shots on target?
No. BAI8 Desk cards price the match result only. The worked example in this article is illustrative.