Why our chance stays put when the price moves
Five BAI8 Desk prices moved overnight while our chances did not change. Why the chance is fixed at publication, why the price is not, and the weakness in that.
On this page
Our chance on a Desk card is fixed when the card is published. The best price beside it is not: it is re-quoted across the bookmakers we track, with the time of the quote. So when a price moves, the edge moves too, while our chance stays exactly where it was. Five cards showed that overnight. That is deliberate, and it has a weakness, which we would rather name than hide.
What moved and what did not
| Pick | Card published | Our chance | Best price then | Best price 20 Oct | Edge now |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord at Real Betis | 17 Oct | 37.8% | 6.25 | 5.60 | +19.9 pts |
| Pelicans v Pacers | 17 Oct | 59.1% | 2.44 | 2.36 | +16.7 pts |
| Lech Poznań v Sunderland | 18 Oct | 40.6% | 5.50 | 5.00 | +20.6 pts |
| Gent at SC Braga | 18 Oct | 43.8% | 5.00 | 5.25 | +24.7 pts |
| FC Lugano at Getafe | 18 Oct | 38.9% | 4.56 | 4.62 | +17.2 pts |
"Best price then" is the price in our preview of each game. Every chance in the third column is the same today as on the day it was published.
Why we fix the chance
A chance comes from a full research run: thirteen passes, every source graded, then the model. That run is the thing we can stand behind and settle on the record. If the chance drifted quietly with each news item, nobody could check later what we actually said. How the run works is in how BAI8 prices a fixture.
The price is a different kind of fact. It is what a bookmaker would pay at a stated time, and it is out of date the minute after. So we keep it fresh and stamp it, as explained in why we timestamp every Desk quote.
The weakness
News that breaks after publication is not in the number. This week that means Cucho Hernández's calf for Betis and Dejounte Murray's return for the Pelicans. Both happen to point the same way as our calls, but the next one may not. When it matters, we write it up and say which way it points: what Cucho Hernández's calf does to the Betis price and Dejounte Murray is fit: what it does to the Pelicans. The older the card, the more of this there can be, so check the publication date as well as the quote time.
A moving price is not a verdict
Three of the five prices shortened towards our numbers. It is tempting to read that as the market coming round to us. It may be. It may also be one generous bookmaker correcting itself, which is the point of why one bookmaker's price is not the market. The only real test is how the calls settle, over many of them.
What this does not tell you
It does not tell you when, or whether, a card will be re-run before kick-off. It does not say an edge that grew overnight is more trustworthy. And it does not change the basic rule: our chance is an estimate, not a promise.
18+. Bet only what you can afford to lose.
Common questions
Why did the BAI8 edge change when the chance did not?
The edge is our chance minus the chance implied by the best price. The chance is fixed when the card is published; the best price is re-quoted across bookmakers. When the price moves, the edge moves with it.
When does a BAI8 chance change?
Only when the research is run again and a new card is published. Until then the number on the card is the one from the original run, whatever news comes in.
Does BAI8 update for injury news?
Not automatically. News that breaks after a card is published is not in its chance. We write it up separately, as with Cucho Hernández and Dejounte Murray this week, and say which way it points.
Is a moving price a sign BAI8 was right?
No. A price that moves towards our number can be the market agreeing, or just one bookmaker correcting a generous quote. Only results over many calls can tell.