College football Saturday: our two calls
Our two college football calls for Saturday 24 October, Arizona and Northern Illinois, with our chances, fair prices, best prices and why both need care.
On this page
We have two college football calls on the Desk for Saturday 24 October: Arizona at home to Iowa State, and Northern Illinois at home to Hawaii. We make Arizona 70.0% and Northern Illinois 55.5%. Both show an edge of about 18 points at the best price we saw, and both need care: one price looks out of line with its own spread, and the other backs a team that has not won all season. These are estimates, not promises.
The two cards
| Game (UTC kick-off) | Our pick | Our chance | Fair price | Best price seen | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northern Illinois v Hawaii (19:30) | Northern Illinois | 55.5% | 1.80 | 2.68, Courtside | +18.2 pts |
| Arizona v Iowa State (23:30) | Arizona | 70.0% | 1.43 | 1.95, BoyleSports | +18.7 pts |
Both prices were quoted at 04:36 UTC on 22 October, more than two and a half days before kick-off. College football moneylines have no draw, so each card has two outcomes. If you read prices in the American format, 2.68 is +168 and 1.95 is −105; the conversion is in American odds: what plus and minus mean.
Northern Illinois v Hawaii
Two teams with one win between them. We make the winless Huskies favourites because Hawaii fly about 4,000 miles and have lost all three road games, conceding 31.3 points a game away against 20.3 at home, per StatsNext. The market goes the other way: USA Today lists Hawaii as 4.5-point favourites. The full case is in Northern Illinois v Hawaii prediction and odds, and the travel argument has its own piece: what a 4,000-mile trip does to Hawaii's price.
Arizona v Iowa State
No. 25 Arizona are 5–1 and come off a bye; Iowa State are 3–3. The spread market agrees they are clear favourites: CollegeFFB lists them at −10.5. The surprise is the 1.95 moneyline, which prices Arizona near a coin flip. When one bookmaker's price disagrees with the rest of the market that much, the likeliest explanation is the price, not our number. Details in Arizona v Iowa State prediction and odds.
How to read these two together
Two edges of 18 points look alike on a table and are not. The Northern Illinois edge is a disagreement about the game. The Arizona edge is mostly a disagreement with one quote. The first can be right or wrong on the field; the second may simply disappear when the price moves. Why we look twice at gaps this wide is in why a very wide edge makes us look twice.
What this does not tell you
It does not say either team will win; on our numbers both picks win only about 39% of the time if the games are independent, so at least one loses about six times in ten. It covers the moneyline only, not spreads or totals, and every price is one bookmaker's quote at one moment. Prices will move before Saturday.
18+. Bet only what you can afford to lose.
Common questions
What are BAI8's college football picks this week?
Two calls for Saturday 24 October. Arizona to beat Iowa State (our chance 70.0%) and Northern Illinois to beat Hawaii (55.5%). Both are estimates, not promises.
Which college football call has the bigger edge?
Arizona, at 18.7 points against a best price of 1.95 at BoyleSports, just ahead of Northern Illinois at 18.2 points against 2.68 at Courtside. Both prices were quoted on 22 October.
Why does BAI8 disagree with the market on these games?
On Northern Illinois, travel and home form for a Hawaii side that has lost every road game. On Arizona, the price itself looks out of line with the 10.5-point spread, so the edge may be a stale quote.