La Liga matchday 8: our three calls in numbers
Málaga v Espanyol, Rayo v Athletic and Levante v Sevilla: our chances, fair prices, the best prices we saw and the size of each gap, side by side.
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La Liga is back after three weeks off, and we have three calls in matchday 8. All three are on the side we think the market priced too long: Espanyol at Málaga (3.4 points), Rayo Vallecano at home to Athletic (5.8 points) and Sevilla at Levante (1.3 points). None of the three selections is more likely than not to win on our own numbers. These are estimates about prices, not promises about results.
The three calls side by side
| Match (UTC) | Home | Draw | Away | Selection | Best price seen | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Málaga v Espanyol, Fri 19:00 | 31.2% | 29.9% | 38.9% | Espanyol | 2.82, Betfair | 3.4 pts |
| Rayo v Athletic, Sat 12:00 | 37.5% | 29.1% | 33.4% | Rayo | 3.15, Betfair | 5.8 pts |
| Levante v Sevilla, Mon 19:00 | 34.4% | 28.0% | 37.6% | Sevilla | 2.76, Betfair | 1.3 pts |
All three best prices were quoted at 23:32 UTC on 4 October. Our fair prices for the three selections are 2.57 (Espanyol), 2.67 (Rayo) and 2.66 (Sevilla). Edge here is our chance minus the chance the price implies, in percentage points.
One pattern stands out: the draw sits between 28% and 30% in all three. Three evenly matched games is what a draw-heavy round looks like, and what the draw is worth in football odds explains why that number matters even if you never back one.
Málaga v Espanyol
Málaga open the round at La Rosaleda on Friday. Los Profes del Fútbol lists Julen Lobete, Diego Murillo, Aarón Ochoa and José Salinas out for Málaga. Coach Juanfran Funes told Sport that Adam Aznou will probably make his debut and that Rafita is a doubt after a heavy spell with Spain's under-21s. For Espanyol, captain Javi Puado travels for the first time since January, though he is unlikely to play much. We have Espanyol 38.9%.
Rayo Vallecano v Athletic Club
The widest gap of the round. Level on eight points, Athletic without Nico Williams, Rayo relying on Sergio Camello's goals. The full working is in our Rayo Vallecano v Athletic Bilbao prediction.
Levante v Sevilla
Monday night at the Ciutat de València. Diario de Sevilla reports Marcão ruled out and striker Lucas Stassin back on the grass and not ruled out. Comuniate has Levante without Hugo Sotelo (knee sprain) and Etta Eyong a late fitness call. We have Sevilla 37.6%, but at 2.76 the gap is only 1.3 points, small enough that any price move since 4 October could have erased it.
What this does not tell you
It does not say any of these teams will win: the selections lose or draw more often than they win, on our own numbers. It does not tell you the quoted prices are still available. And three calls in one round are far too few to judge whether our numbers are any good. That takes a long, public record, misses included.
18+. Bet only what you can afford to lose.
Common questions
Which La Liga matchday 8 games does BAI8 have a call on?
Three. Málaga v Espanyol on Friday, Rayo Vallecano v Athletic Club on Saturday and Levante v Sevilla on Monday.
Which La Liga call has the biggest edge this round?
Rayo Vallecano to beat Athletic Club. We have 37.5% and the best price we saw, 3.15, implies 31.7%, a gap of 5.8 points.
Are these three La Liga picks safe?
No. In every one of the three our selection has under a 40% chance of winning on our own numbers. They are prices we think are too long, not results we expect.