Europa and Conference League: our four calls
Our chances for Lech v Sunderland, Hoffenheim v Lyon, Braga v Gent and Getafe v Lugano on Thursday 22 October, with fair prices, best prices and edges.
On this page
We have four cards for Thursday's European football, and each one backs the side the market rates lower. Gent at SC Braga carries the widest edge, +23.8 points, then Lech Poznań against Sunderland at +22.4, Lugano at Getafe at +16.9 and Lyon at Hoffenheim at +14.2. Every number below comes from the BAI8 Desk, and every one is an estimate, not a promise.
The four cards
| Kick-off (UTC) | Fixture | Our pick | Our chance | Fair price | Best price seen | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 16:45 | Lech Poznań v Sunderland | Lech Poznań | 40.6% | 2.46 | 5.50, Nordic Bet | +22.4 pts |
| Thu 16:45 | Getafe v FC Lugano | FC Lugano | 38.9% | 2.57 | 4.56, 1xBet | +16.9 pts |
| Thu 19:00 | TSG Hoffenheim v Lyon | Lyon | 42.8% | 2.34 | 3.50, Caesars | +14.2 pts |
| Thu 19:00 | SC Braga v Gent | Gent | 43.8% | 2.28 | 5.00, Coolbet | +23.8 pts |
Prices were quoted between 01:08 and 01:54 UTC on 19 October.
Each match in a line
- Lech Poznań v Sunderland. Sunderland have lost four league games in a row and are missing two defenders. Full card: Lech Poznań v Sunderland prediction and odds, and the injury story in what Sunderland's injuries do to the Lech price.
- Getafe v Lugano. Getafe have a long doubt list; Lugano arrive in form. Getafe v Lugano prediction.
- Hoffenheim v Lyon. Lyon have six points from two, Hoffenheim none, but Lyon's injury list is the longer one. Hoffenheim v Lyon prediction and odds.
- SC Braga v Gent. Our widest card, and Gent are without top scorer Josué Vergara. SC Braga v Gent prediction and odds.
Why four wide gaps at once is a warning
Two of these four are gaps of more than 20 points, all four are double-digit, and all four best prices come from a single bookmaker each. On our record, wide gaps have not been reliable: our widest card on Saturday, Everton at +11.5, lost. On Sunday all five of our positive-edge calls won, but those were gaps of 2 to 8 points, a different kind of call. We wrote about the difference in why a very wide edge makes us look twice.
What this does not tell you
It does not tell you any of the four will win; our pick is under 45% in every case, so on our own numbers most of them will not. It covers the match-result market only. Prices this far from the rest of the market usually move, and team sheets arrive about an hour before kick-off. The midweek Champions League cards are in Real Betis v Feyenoord prediction.
18+. Bet only what you can afford to lose.
Common questions
What are BAI8's Europa League predictions this week?
Two cards on Thursday 22 October. Lech Poznań 40.6% at home to Sunderland (edge +22.4 points at 5.5) and Lyon 42.8% at Hoffenheim (edge +14.2 points at 3.5).
What are BAI8's Conference League predictions this week?
Gent 43.8% at SC Braga (edge +23.8 points at 5.0) and FC Lugano 38.9% at Getafe (edge +16.9 points at 4.56).
Why are all four BAI8 calls on the away side or the underdog?
In each case our chance is well above what the best price implies. That is what puts a card on the Desk. It is also why we check these four harder than usual, since gaps this wide are where research misses hide.
What time are the Europa League and Conference League games on Thursday?
Lech v Sunderland and Getafe v Lugano kick off at 16:45 UTC. Hoffenheim v Lyon and SC Braga v Gent kick off at 19:00 UTC.