What United's injury list does to Atlético's price
Shaw and Mainoo stayed home and four more are out. What Manchester United's injury list does to the Atlético price, and why our card barely moved.
On this page
Manchester United's injury list makes Atlético Madrid a little stronger favourites tonight, but not a cheaper bet. We make Atlético 42.6%, and the best price we saw, 2.31 at GTbets, implies 43.3%. The absences were public before the Desk priced the game, so the market and our research had already taken them in. The number is an estimate, not a promise.
Who is out
| Player | Position | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Shaw | Left-back | Did not travel | Manchester Evening News |
| Kobbie Mainoo | Central midfield | Did not travel | Manchester Evening News |
| Patrick Dorgu | Wing-back | Out, hamstring | ESPN |
| Noussair Mazraoui | Full-back | Out, back | ESPN |
| Benjamin Šeško | Striker | Out, shin | ESPN |
| Manuel Ugarte | Defensive midfield | Out, knee | ESPN |
| Tom Heaton | Goalkeeper | Doubt, abdomen | ESPN |
Michael Carrick said on Monday that Shaw and Mainoo "picked up issues in the game on Saturday" against Tottenham and were "not ready for the game tomorrow". Atlético, by ESPN's count, have a full squad.
What a list like this does to a price
Three things decide how far an absence moves a match price: how good the player is relative to his replacement, how much of the team's shape runs through him, and how late the news arrived. United lose depth in two places at once, the left side of defence and the middle of midfield, so the replacements are also the next replacements. That is worth something.
But timing cuts the other way. Dorgu, Mazraoui and Šeško were known to be out before the Tottenham game. Ugarte has been out since the summer. Only Shaw and Mainoo were new on Monday, and both are players the market would already rate as doubtful after a knock. By the time the press conference confirmed it, most of the move had happened. We explain why prices drift like this in why betting odds move before kick-off.
Where our card sits
| Outcome | Our chance | Fair price | Best price seen | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlético Madrid | 42.6% | 2.35 | 2.31, GTbets | −0.6 pts |
| Draw | 26.0% | 3.84 | ||
| Manchester United | 31.3% | 3.19 |
A card at −0.6 points is the market and us agreeing, give or take quote noise. The full preview, with what could make us wrong, is Atlético Madrid v Manchester United prediction.
What this does not tell you
It does not tell you who Carrick will start, and a predicted line-up is not a team sheet. It also does not price the knock-on for United's next league game: an injury list this long can matter more on Saturday than it does tonight.
18+. Bet only what you can afford to lose.
Common questions
Who is missing for Manchester United against Atlético Madrid?
Luke Shaw and Kobbie Mainoo did not travel. Patrick Dorgu, Noussair Mazraoui, Benjamin Šeško and Manuel Ugarte are also out, and Tom Heaton is a doubt.
Does a long injury list make Atlético a value bet?
Not on our numbers. We make Atlético 42.6% and the best price we saw, 2.31, implies 43.3%. The news is already in the price.
Why does an injury list move a price less than people expect?
Most absences are known for days, so the market has priced them before the press conference confirms them. Only genuinely new news moves a price much.