Puka Nacua's calf and the Raiders price
Puka Nacua is questionable for the Rams at Las Vegas. What his calf means for our Raiders call at 2.50, and how far the number would need to move to vanish.
On this page
Puka Nacua is questionable for the Los Angeles Rams at Las Vegas on Sunday with a calf injury. He was limited on Thursday and did not practise on Friday, per the Rams' report, though Sean McVay called it "minor". Our call is on the Raiders at 56.2%, and the best price we saw was 2.50. The short answer: Nacua's status matters more to the market than to our number, which was set before Friday's report and has not moved since.
The timeline
| Time (UTC) | What happened | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Thu 22 Oct | Nacua limited in practice | Rams report |
| Fri 23 Oct, 16:56 | Our Raiders card published: 56.2%, fair 1.78 | BAI8 Desk |
| Fri 23 Oct | Nacua does not practise; listed questionable | Rams report |
| Sat 24 Oct, 04:17 | Raiders re-quoted at 2.50, Unibet (NL) | BAI8 Desk |
So the card was written while Nacua was still practising in part. The price it is now compared against came after the Friday report, which means the market has had the news and still offers 2.50.
What the price says, and how far it can move
At 2.50 the market puts the Raiders at 1 / 2.50 = 40%. We say 56.2%. The gap between those two is the edge, 16.2 points. Here is what happens to it if the market moves on Sunday's inactives:
| Raiders price | Market's chance | Edge against our 56.2% |
|---|---|---|
| 2.50 (now) | 40.0% | +16.2 pts |
| 2.20 | 45.5% | +10.7 pts |
| 2.00 | 50.0% | +6.2 pts |
| 1.78 | 56.2% | 0 |
If Nacua is ruled out, the Raiders price is likely to shorten, and the edge shrinks with it. If he plays, the price may drift and the edge widens. Our number does not move with either: it is one estimate, made once.
Why one receiver may not decide it
The Rams already play without two defensive linemen, Myles Garrett and Kobie Turner, both on injured reserve per ESPN. Trent McDuffie, their cornerback, is also questionable and missed practice all week, and linebacker Nate Landman is out. That is more lost talent on the Rams' defence than Nacua is on their offence. We looked at the same kind of question, one absence and a price, in what missing Nick Bosa does to a 49ers price. The full card is in Raiders v Rams prediction and odds.
What this does not tell you
It does not tell you whether Nacua plays; that comes with the inactives about 90 minutes before kick-off. It cannot say how much our 56.2% would change with him out, because the card was not re-priced. And a positive edge is a price judgment, not a forecast that the Raiders win: on our own numbers they lose about 44 times in 100. The basics are in what a positive edge actually means.
18+. Bet only what you can afford to lose.
Common questions
Is Puka Nacua playing against the Raiders?
He is questionable with a calf injury. He was limited in practice on Thursday and did not practise on Friday, per the Rams' injury report. Sean McVay called it "minor".
Does Puka Nacua's injury change BAI8's Raiders call?
Our chance has not changed since the card was published: Raiders 56.2%, fair price 1.78. The price it is compared against, 2.50 at Unibet (NL), was re-quoted on Saturday morning, after Friday's report.
How much would the Raiders price need to move for the edge to go?
To 1.78 or shorter. At 1.78 the market would agree with our 56.2% and the edge would be zero.