South Carolina v Tennessee prediction and odds
We make Tennessee 58.0% at South Carolina, fair price 1.72, and saw 2.16 at Courtside: an 11.7 point edge. Our chances, the spread swing and injuries.
On this page
We make Tennessee favourites at South Carolina: Tennessee 58.0%, South Carolina 42.0%. The best moneyline price we saw on Tennessee was 2.16 at Courtside, against our fair price of 1.72. That is an 11.7 point positive edge. At 2.16 the market gives Tennessee about 46%, so it now makes South Carolina slight favourites, and we do not. The number is an estimate, not a promise.
Kick-off is 19:30 UTC on Saturday 24 October (3:30 p.m. Eastern) at Williams-Brice Stadium in Columbia, on ESPN. No. 11 Tennessee are 6–1 (3–1 SEC); South Carolina are 3–3 (1–3), per The State.
Our numbers
| Outcome | Our chance | Fair price | Best price seen | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tennessee Volunteers | 58.0% | 1.72 | 2.16, Courtside | +11.7 pts |
| South Carolina Gamecocks | 42.0% | 2.38 |
The 2.16 was quoted at 04:51 UTC on 23 October, about 39 hours before kick-off. Our card was published at 04:55 UTC on 21 October. In American odds 2.16 is +116; the conversion is in American odds: what plus and minus mean.
The market has swung this week
The State reports that Tennessee opened as 2.5-point favourites in the VegasInsider consensus, and that by Wednesday the line had flipped to South Carolina by 2.5 at DraftKings and FanDuel. That is a five-point swing towards the home side after our card went up. ESPN Analytics still gives South Carolina only 40.1%, close to our 42.0%. So the betting market and two separate models disagree, and the price we saw reflects the market. Why a price can move while our chance does not is in why our chance stays put when the price moves.
What the research weighs
- Form. Tennessee beat Alabama last week. South Carolina beat ranked Florida on the road on 10 October and have had a bye since.
- The ground game. The State has these as the SEC's two best rushing offences: South Carolina 232.3 yards a game, Tennessee 217.1. DeSean Bishop has 837 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns for Tennessee.
- Tennessee's quarterback. Josh Heupel said on Monday he had not named a starter. Freshman Faizon Brandon started the first five games; sophomore Georgie MacIntyre started the last two, including the Alabama win.
- South Carolina's quarterback. LaNorris Sellers has six touchdowns and no interceptions in his last two games, per The State.
Injuries
South Carolina listed four players as out on Wednesday's SEC report: receiver Jayden Sellers, edge rusher Kobby Sakyi-Prah and offensive linemen Josiah Thompson and Seth Smith. Thompson and Sellers are out for the year. Defensive back Quay'sheed Scott is doubtful and lineman Carter Miller is questionable; both missed the Florida game. The SEC updates its reports on Friday and 90 minutes before kick-off.
What could make us wrong
A five-point line move is a lot of money saying the other thing. If the movement reflects players returning for South Carolina after the bye, or a quarterback decision at Tennessee, our 58.0% may be too high. The last three meetings were decided by double digits, and South Carolina won 63–38 the last time this game was played in Columbia, in 2022.
What this does not tell you
It does not say Tennessee will win; on our numbers they lose about four times in ten. It covers the moneyline only, not the spread or the total, and the 2.16 is one bookmaker's quote at one moment. Saturday's other college calls are in college football Saturday: our two calls.
18+. Bet only what you can afford to lose.
Common questions
Who do BAI8 favour for South Carolina v Tennessee?
Tennessee. We give the Tennessee Volunteers 58.0% and the South Carolina Gamecocks 42.0% to win the game outright.
Are Tennessee good value at South Carolina?
On our numbers, yes at the price we saw. The best quote was 2.16 at Courtside on 23 October against our fair 1.72, an 11.7 point edge. The spread market has moved the other way this week, so treat it with care. It is an estimate, not a promise.
When is South Carolina v Tennessee?
Saturday 24 October 2026, 19:30 UTC (3:30 p.m. Eastern), at Williams-Brice Stadium in Columbia, on ESPN.
Who is injured for South Carolina v Tennessee?
South Carolina list receiver Jayden Sellers, edge Kobby Sakyi-Prah and linemen Josiah Thompson and Seth Smith as out, defensive back Quay'sheed Scott as doubtful and lineman Carter Miller as questionable.