Texas v Ole Miss prediction and odds
We make Ole Miss 54.5% at Texas, fair price 1.83, and saw 2.46 at Betfair: a 13.9 point edge. Our chances, the Texas injury news and the risks.
On this page
We make Ole Miss narrow favourites at Texas: Ole Miss 54.5%, Texas 45.5%. The best moneyline price we saw on Ole Miss was 2.46 at Betfair, against our fair price of 1.83. That is a 13.9 point positive edge. At 2.46 the market gives Ole Miss about 41%, so it has Texas as favourites at home, and we do not. The number is an estimate, not a promise.
Kick-off is 23:30 UTC on Saturday 24 October (6:30 p.m. Central) at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin, on ABC. It is No. 7 Ole Miss against No. 19 Texas.
Our numbers
College football has no draw on the moneyline, so the card has two outcomes.
| Outcome | Our chance | Fair price | Best price seen | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ole Miss Rebels | 54.5% | 1.83 | 2.46, Betfair | +13.9 pts |
| Texas Longhorns | 45.5% | 2.20 |
The 2.46 was quoted at 04:51 UTC on 23 October, on the Betfair exchange, about 43 hours before kick-off. Our card was published at 22:08 UTC on 21 October. That matters here, because the biggest piece of team news arrived after it, as covered below. In American odds 2.46 is +146; the conversion is in American odds: what plus and minus mean.
What the research weighs
- The quarterback. Trinidad Chambliss has thrown a touchdown pass in 19 straight games, per Yahoo Sports, and runs as well: he leads an Ole Miss offence that ran for 257 yards against Missouri.
- Texas's last game. Texas lost 27–24 to Florida last Saturday, per 247Sports, and that is the game where their best defender got hurt.
- The Texas pass rush. Even before the injury news, the Texas game notes show Ole Miss allow only 0.83 sacks a game, among the fewest in the country. Pressure was always going to be hard to find.
Injuries
Texas listed edge rusher Colin Simmons as out on Thursday's SEC availability report, per 247Sports. Simmons leads the country in sacks (10.5) and tackles for loss (16), and hurt his ankle against Florida. The next man at his position, freshman Richard Wesley, is also out. Starting running back Hollywood Smothers, the Longhorns' leading rusher with 289 yards on 65 carries, is doubtful with a shoulder injury.
For Ole Miss, left tackle Terez Davis is questionable, per 247Sports, and running back Kewan Lacy, questionable on Wednesday, was no longer on Thursday's report. What losing Simmons does to the game has its own piece: Colin Simmons is out: what it does to Texas.
What could make us wrong
Texas at home, at night, are a hard place to win, and the market rates them more highly than we do. Our card went up before Simmons was ruled out, and we do not move a published chance for later news, for the reasons in why our chance stays put when the price moves. That cuts both ways: the news favours Ole Miss, but it is also not in our number, so the price you see on Saturday may already reflect it.
What this does not tell you
It does not say Ole Miss will win; on our numbers they lose about 45 times in 100. It covers the moneyline only, not the spread or the total, and the 2.46 is one exchange quote at one moment. The SEC releases more availability reports on Friday evening and 90 minutes before kick-off. Saturday's other college calls are in college football Saturday: our four calls.
18+. Bet only what you can afford to lose.
Common questions
Who do BAI8 favour for Texas v Ole Miss?
Ole Miss, narrowly. We give the Ole Miss Rebels 54.5% and the Texas Longhorns 45.5% to win the game outright.
Are Ole Miss good value at Texas?
On our numbers, yes at the price we saw. The best quote was 2.46 at Betfair on 23 October against our fair 1.83, a 13.9 point edge. It is an estimate, not a promise.
When is Texas v Ole Miss?
Saturday 24 October 2026, 23:30 UTC (6:30 p.m. Central), at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin, on ABC.
Who is injured for Texas v Ole Miss?
Texas have ruled out edge rushers Colin Simmons and Richard Wesley, and list running back Hollywood Smothers as doubtful. Ole Miss list left tackle Terez Davis as questionable, while running back Kewan Lacy has come off the report.