What the Pacers' injury list does to the Pelicans
Indiana go to New Orleans without T.J. McConnell, Aaron Nesmith and Johnny Furphy; the Pelicans report nobody. What that does to our 59.1% and the 2.43 price.
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Indiana go to New Orleans for opening night without two of their rotation guards and wings, T.J. McConnell and Aaron Nesmith, both out with hamstring strains, plus Johnny Furphy after knee surgery. The Pelicans have nothing on their injury report. That news points the same way as our card, which has New Orleans at 59.1%, but it does not change our number: the chance was set when we published and the absences were already listed as day-to-day then. The best price on the Pelicans this morning is 2.43 at 1xBet, a 17.9 point edge on our numbers. It is an estimate, not a promise.
Tip-off is 7 pm CT on Wednesday 21 October at the Smoothie King Center, per the Pelicans; the Desk lists it at 00:10 UTC on 22 October.
The injury report
| Team | Player | Status | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pacers | T.J. McConnell | Out | Right hamstring strain |
| Pacers | Aaron Nesmith | Out | Left hamstring strain |
| Pacers | Johnny Furphy | Out | Right knee surgery |
| Pacers | Braden Smith | Doubtful | Two-way contract |
| Pelicans | Nothing to report |
Source: the Pelicans' official injury update and the NBA's 21 October report. ESPN lists McConnell and Nesmith with an estimated return of 23 October, so both are short-term absences.
Our card, and how the price has moved
| Quoted (UTC) | Best price on the Pelicans | Our chance | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Oct, 03:06 | 2.44, 1xBet | 59.1% | +18.1 pts |
| 20 Oct, 04:55 | 2.36, 1xBet | 59.1% | +16.7 pts |
| 21 Oct, 04:39 | 2.43, 1xBet | 59.1% | +17.9 pts |
At 2.43 the price gives New Orleans about 41%. We are 18 points higher. The full card is in Pelicans v Pacers prediction and odds.
What the absences should do
McConnell is Indiana's change of pace off the bench. Losing the backup point guard puts more minutes on the starters, Tyrese Haliburton among them, in his first regular-season game back from an Achilles injury. How that return reads is in what Haliburton's return does to the Pacers.
Nesmith is a starting-calibre wing defender. Without him, Indiana are thinner exactly where they would guard Trey Murphy III and Zion Williamson.
But the market moved the other way. The price on New Orleans drifted back out from 2.36 to 2.43 overnight even with these absences confirmed. That tells you the market either expected them or weighs something else more. When the news and the price disagree, we do not chase the news; that habit is in why our chance stays put when the price moves.
What could make us wrong
Our edge is wide, and wide edges are where research mistakes hide. The Pacers' starting five from their last preseason game is intact, per the Pelicans' own preview, and opening-night form is guesswork for both sides. Dejounte Murray is back for New Orleans, which we covered in Dejounte Murray is fit, but new rotations take games to settle.
What this does not tell you
It does not say the Pelicans will win; on our numbers they lose about four times in ten. It covers the moneyline only, at one bookmaker at one time. The injury report can change up to tip-off.
18+. Bet only what you can afford to lose.
Common questions
Who is injured for Pacers v Pelicans?
Indiana list T.J. McConnell (hamstring), Aaron Nesmith (hamstring) and Johnny Furphy (knee surgery) as out, per the Pelicans' official injury update. New Orleans have nothing to report.
What is BAI8's chance for the Pelicans against the Pacers?
We make New Orleans 59.1% and Indiana 40.9%. The best price we saw on the Pelicans on 21 October was 2.43 at 1xBet, against our fair price of 1.69, a 17.9 point edge.
Did the Pacers' injuries change BAI8's number?
No. Our chance was set when the card was published and has not moved. Only the price has, from 2.44 to 2.36 and back to 2.43.
Is Tyrese Haliburton playing for the Pacers?
He is in Indiana's listed starting five from their last preseason game and is not on the injury report.