Odds-on and odds-against explained
Odds-on means the price implies better than a 50% chance; odds-against means worse. How to spot each in decimal and fractional odds, with real Desk prices.
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Odds-on means the price implies a better than 50% chance of winning, so a winning bet pays back less than you staked in profit. Odds-against means the price implies a worse than 50% chance, so a win pays more than your stake. The dividing line is evens: 2.0 in decimal, 1/1 in fractional, exactly 50%.
How to spot each
| Decimal | Fractional | Implied chance | Profit on a 10 unit win | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds-on | below 2.0, e.g. 1.50 | e.g. 1/2 | above 50% (1.50 is 66.7%) | under 10 (1.50 pays 5) |
| Evens | 2.00 | 1/1 | 50% | 10 |
| Odds-against | above 2.0, e.g. 3.00 | e.g. 2/1 | below 50% (3.00 is 33.3%) | over 10 (3.00 pays 20) |
The implied chance is one divided by the decimal price. The full version of that conversion is in implied probability in one minute.
A price can be odds-against while our chance is odds-on
This is the useful part. Two of this morning's Desk cards are odds-against at the bookmaker and odds-on on our numbers.
| Pick | Our chance | Our fair price | Best price seen | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amed SK at Samsunspor | 58.1% | 1.72 (odds-on) | 2.33, betPARX (odds-against) | +15.2 pts |
| Pelicans v Pacers | 59.1% | 1.69 (odds-on) | 2.36, 1xBet (odds-against) | +16.7 pts |
In both cases we think the side is more likely to win than not, and the bookmaker's price says it is less likely than not. That disagreement, not the label, is what makes a call interesting. Each has its own preview: Samsunspor v Amed SK and Pelicans v Pacers.
Odds-on does not mean safe
On Monday our record had two odds-on picks at short prices. Tottenham at 1.54 against Coventry won. Braga at 1.62 against Gil Vicente lost. Both were negative-edge calls: we thought the price was too short for the real chance, even though each was the likeliest winner. A short price that is too short loses money over time just as surely as a long one that is too long. More on that in what a short favourite really risks.
What this does not tell you
The labels say nothing about value. They tell you how the price compares with 50%, not how it compares with the true chance. Fractional odds round, so a fractional price can hide a small difference that decimal odds show. And none of this changes how often a bet wins.
18+. Bet only what you can afford to lose.
Common questions
What does odds-on mean?
The price implies a better than 50% chance. In decimal odds that is any price below 2.0; in fractional odds the first number is smaller than the second, like 4/6. You win less than your stake.
What does odds-against mean?
The price implies a worse than 50% chance. In decimal odds that is any price above 2.0; in fractional odds the first number is bigger, like 6/4. You win more than your stake.
What is evens in betting?
A price of 2.0 in decimal or 1/1 in fractional. It implies exactly 50%, and a winning bet returns double the stake.
Is an odds-on bet safer?
It is more likely to win, but that is not the same as better. An odds-on price can be too short for its true chance, and an odds-against price can be too long. What matters is the gap between your chance and the price.