Betting basics2 min readFair price vs best price on a BAI8 cardEvery BAI8 card shows a fair price and a best price. What each one means, how the edge falls out of the gap, and three of today's cards worked through.Why betting odds move before kick-offOdds move for three reasons: news, money and time. What each one means, why the price near kick-off is usually the best informed, and what it means for you. · 2 min readWhat a positive edge actually meansAn edge is the gap between our estimate and a margin-adjusted market probability. Here is how to calculate it and what it cannot promise. · 3 min readWhat variance does to a good betA real edge still produces long losing runs. Here is the independent-trial arithmetic, its assumptions, and why small edges need large samples. · 2 min readWhy odds formats do not change the betDecimal, fractional and American are three spellings of one number. Switching format changes what you read, not what you are offered. · 1 min readImplied probability in one minuteEvery price is a probability in disguise. One division converts it, and once you can do that in your head the whole board starts saying something readable. · 1 min readWhat the bookmaker's margin really costs youOverround is not the loss rate on your bet. Here is how to calculate it, why its allocation matters, and what a known expected loss means over a year. · 1 min read