Eight positive-edge losses on 5 November
All eight of our positive-edge calls on 5 November lost, including Anderlecht, Palace, Trabzonspor and Thun. The day's record, misses included.
On this page
All eight of our positive-edge calls on 5 November lost. That is the honest headline. Expected wins from those eight chances were about 3.7; actual wins were zero. The day included four public European calls that already have previews on this blog, and four more members-facing edges. The wider Desk settled 44 calls that day. The wipeout sat in the positive-edge group.
The eight that lost
| Match | Our call | Our chance | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anderlecht v Salzburg | Salzburg | 36.9% | 3.93, 1xBet | +11.4 pts | Anderlecht 2–0 |
| Crystal Palace v Hoffenheim | Hoffenheim | 36.8% | 3.95, Unibet (NL) | +11.5 pts | 1–1 |
| Trabzonspor v Freiburg | Trabzonspor | 50.7% | 2.75, Unibet | +14.3 pts | 0–1 Freiburg |
| Thun v Hearts | Hearts | 47.6% | 2.70, Unibet | +10.5 pts | Thun 3–1 |
| Riga v Jablonec | Jablonec | 35.7% | 3.15, 1xBet | +3.9 pts | Riga won |
| Leverkusen v Marseille | Leverkusen | 68.9% | 1.49, Unibet (NL) | +1.8 pts | Leverkusen lost |
| Lillestrøm v Plzeň | Lillestrøm | 40.2% | 2.90, Nordic Bet | +5.7 pts | Lillestrøm lost |
| Real Sociedad v Lyon | Real Sociedad | 55.5% | 2.02, Codere (IT) | +6.0 pts | Sociedad lost |
Prices and chances are from the Desk record as settled. Fair price is 1 divided by our chance; edge is our chance minus the chance the price implied.
Four of those eight already have settled sections on their preview pages: Anderlecht vs Salzburg, Palace v Hoffenheim, Trabzonspor v Freiburg, and Thun vs Hearts.
What the maths said before kick-off
Add the eight chances and you get about 3.72 expected wins. Getting zero is a bad draw from that distribution, not proof the chances were fiction. A coin that is fair can still land tails eight times; the record's job is to keep showing those runs instead of hiding them.
The biggest edges of the night were Trabzonspor (+14.3), Hoffenheim (+11.5), Salzburg (+11.4) and Hearts (+10.5). Three of those four were priced above 2.70. Longish prices lose often. That is why we publish the miss next to the call.
The rest of the day
Across all 44 settled calls on 5 November the record was not empty. Plenty of short-priced, zero or negative-edge calls won, which is normal when favourites land. The day's story for readers who follow positive edge is still the wipeout above. For how many bets you need before a streak means something, read how many bets before a record means anything.
As of this morning the all-time record sits at 485 settled, 277 won, 202 lost, 6 returned, about +24.2 units.
What this does not tell you
It does not tell you that positive-edge calls are broken, or that the next eight will win. It does not reprice any of those fixtures after the fact. It is a settlement note, not a new model.
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Common questions
How did BAI8's positive-edge calls do on 5 November?
All eight lost. Expected wins from those eight chances were about 3.7; actual wins were zero.
Which big European calls lost on 5 November?
Salzburg at Anderlecht, Hoffenheim at Crystal Palace, Trabzonspor at home to Freiburg, and Hearts at Thun. All four were public positive-edge calls and all four lost.
Did the rest of the 5 November record do better?
Yes. Across 44 settled calls that day the wider record was mixed, with plenty of short-priced negative-edge wins. The wipeout was concentrated in the positive-edge group.
Does one bad day break the record?
No. One day of eight losses is variance. It is also exactly the kind of day the record is built to show.