International break Desk calls for 13 and 14 November
Six public BAI8 Desk calls for 13 and 14 November, from América Mineiro +15.0 pts to Northern Ireland +6.2 pts. Chances, prices, links to each preview.
On this page
The BAI8 Desk has six public football calls for the weekend of 13 and 14 November, and three of them are Nations League games. América Mineiro at home to Avaí has the widest edge at +15.0 points. Burgos at Leganés, Estonia at Luxembourg, Querétaro at home to Monterrey, the draw in Andorra v Gibraltar and Northern Ireland at home to Ukraine follow. None of these is a promise: an edge is a gap between our chance and a price, and Sunday's public cards won one of the three that have settled.
The six public cards
| Match | Kick-off (UTC) | Our call | Our chance | Best price | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| América Mineiro v Avaí | Sat 19:30 | América Mineiro | 42.4% | 3.65, BetOnline.ag | +15.0 pts |
| Leganés v Burgos | Fri 19:30 | Burgos | 39.9% | 3.46, Pinnacle | +11.0 pts |
| Luxembourg v Estonia | Fri 19:45 | Estonia | 36.0% | 3.95, Bally Bet | +10.7 pts |
| Querétaro v Monterrey | Sat 23:00 | Querétaro | 39.6% | 3.40, betPARX | +10.2 pts |
| Andorra v Gibraltar | Fri 19:45 | Draw | 40.3% | 3.19, 1xBet | +8.9 pts |
| Northern Ireland v Ukraine | Sat 19:45 | Northern Ireland | 47.9% | 2.40, Hard Rock Bet | +6.2 pts |
Prices were quoted between 02:10 and 04:47 UTC on 9 November. Edge is our chance minus the chance the price implies. Each card lists one selection; the other outcomes are on the match pages. Leganés v Burgos was first published on 8 November at 3.62 and 12.3 points; the price has since drifted to 3.46, so the edge is now 11.0 points. Our chance has not changed, and why is in why our chance stays put when the price moves.
The six previews
- América Mineiro vs Avaí: the relegated side at home to a visitor fighting to stay up, the widest edge.
- Leganés vs Burgos: Friday's Segunda División game, with Leganés conceding freely.
- Luxembourg vs Estonia: the bottom side against the group's second, who won 1–0 in October.
- Querétaro vs Monterrey: a Liga MX catch-up game with five Monterrey players out.
- Andorra vs Gibraltar: the draw in a meeting of two sides that rarely score.
- Northern Ireland vs Ukraine: the group leaders at Windsor Park, the thinnest edge of the six.
What this weekend asks of the numbers
Two things make this slate different. International football has small samples and squads that change every window, so our estimates carry more uncertainty than for a club side that plays every week. And the break takes players out of club fixtures, which is where the Monterrey and Leganés calls come from. What the break does to a price is in what an international break does to the odds.
What this does not tell you
It does not include the members-only fixtures, which carry no public number. It covers the match result only. Prices move before kick-off and the ones above were quoted on Monday morning. Every call here can lose.
Get our call on the next match
Thirteen passes of research before the start: who to back, the price worth taking and why. Run it in the app on any match.
Free plan: 5 assessments a month. No card.
Common questions
What are BAI8's public football calls for 13 and 14 November?
América Mineiro at home to Avaí (+15.0 pts), Burgos at Leganés (+11.0), Estonia at Luxembourg (+10.7), Querétaro at home to Monterrey (+10.2), the draw in Andorra v Gibraltar (+8.9) and Northern Ireland at home to Ukraine (+6.2).
Which call has the widest edge?
América Mineiro against Avaí, +15.0 points: we give them 42.4% against a best price of 3.65 at BetOnline.ag.
Is there a draw call on the list?
Yes. We make the draw 40.3% in Andorra v Gibraltar and saw 3.19 at 1xBet, an 8.9 point edge. It is the only draw call on the public Desk.
Are these calls a promise?
No. An edge is a gap between our chance and a price. Each call loses often: Sunday's public cards won one of three that have settled.